Mathematical Epidemiology of Avian Influenza

• Grant number: 24/01145-7
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
• Start date: May 01, 2024
• End date: April 30, 2026
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Mathematics - Applied Mathematics
• Principal Investigator: Cláudia Pio Ferreira
• Grantee: Sophia Perez Cosin
• Host Institution: Instituto de Biociências (IBB). Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP). Campus de Botucatu. Botucatu , SP, Brazil

Abstract

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A (HPAI), subtype H5N1, is a contagious disease with a high lethality rate, potentially capable of causing the death of approximately 90-100% of poultry populations when contaminated, and triggering epidemics that rapidly spread across all regions of the world. Most migratory birds, especially aquatic ones, are considered natural reservoirs of the virus. Therefore, based on pre-existing differential equation epidemiological models in the literature, the goal is to study different scenarios of avian influenza transmission, constructed according to poultry production scales, namely: small-scale for small producers, medium-scale for medium-sized cooperatives, and large-scale for industrial poultry farms. The populations involved in the dynamics of the disease in all scenarios will include migratory birds, local wild birds, and production birds. The main hypothesis is that the epidemiological model is the same for all three scenarios, but the model parameters differ. Additionally, disease control strategies such as vaccination of production birds, culling of infected or potentially exposed birds, reduction of contact with birds through the use of protective equipment, and increased biosecurity in bird farming will be compared.