FUTURE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, LAND USE AND LAND COVER AND RESERVOIRS ON SEDIMENT FLOWS IN SOUTH AMERICA

• Grant number: 24/00027-0
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate
• Start date: August 01, 2024
• End date: February 29, 2028
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences
• Principal Investigator: Hugo de Oliveira Fagundes
• Grantee: Gustavo Ribeiro da Silva
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Engenharia Civil, Arquitetura e Urbanismo (FEC). Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP). Campinas , SP, Brazil

Abstract

Studies have shown that erosion and deforestation rates in South America are increasing, while much of this sediment is deposited in reservoirs. Recent studies have shown that in the future, climate change could also generate major changes in sediment flows, which could even affect the composition of waters in the Amazon basin. If this trend continues, it means that more sediment will be trapped in reservoirs, reducing their lifespan. At the same time, we know that many changes are taking place, with extreme events becoming more frequent. In 2023, Brazil broke energy consumption records, and although solar and wind energy are becoming increasingly important, several hydroelectric power projects are planned. One way of estimating sediment deposition in reservoirs would be to carry out in situ measurements, a process that is costly in monetary terms. On the other hand, a much less costly way is to use mathematical models to simulate sediment flows. Modeling also allows us to simulate future scenarios of what may become reality. In this context, this project seeks to investigate the current situation of reservoir siltation, as well as to understand how future changes in climate, land use and land cover and the implementation of new reservoirs may affect sediment dynamics and the downstream reservoir lifespan, especially in cascade reservoirs. These results can provide fundamental data for decision-makers in the electricity sector, environmental managers and political agents.