The impact of cold waves in the state of São Paulo during the year 2023

• Grant number: 24/17520-1
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
• Start date: November 01, 2024
• End date: October 31, 2025
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences - Meteorology
• Principal Investigator: Maria de Souza Custodio
• Grantee: Lucas Costa Antunes
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Ciências (FC). Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP). Campus de Bauru. Bauru , SP, Brazil

Abstract

A cold wave is an event capable of causing serious drops in temperature in the regions it passes through. However, the impact of this system is not limited to this meteorological variable. In addition to causing changes in wind and atmospheric pressure, cold waves have also affected society in general and its daily lives, as well as the clothing, public health, and agricultural sectors. According to different studies and reports from climate agencies, 2023 was the hottest year since the pre-industrial period. Contrary to this fact, it is essential to understand how this affects the occurrence and duration of cold waves. In the current scenario where the impacts of global warming and its effects are already being felt more and more intensely, it is necessary to understand regionally how each meteorological system is behaving. In this context, this project aims to analyze the occurrence of this system in South America, with special emphasis on the state of São Paulo. To this end, ERA5 reanalysis data will be used in 2023 to identify cold waves following the methodology of Escobar et al. (2004), analyzing the average temperature of the day on which the cold front passes through the state and of the following days, whether the average temperature of the day before the front passes is higher than the climatological average and also whether the average temperature of the day after the front is lower than the climatological average and 4 °C lower than the previous day. In addition, meteorological fields will be plotted to verify the behavior of adverse variations before, during and after a cold wave.