Facing climate change across elevation: the role of neighborhood interactions and functional dissimilarity in tropical forest responses to extreme drought events

• Grant number: 24/17825-7
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships abroad - Research Internship - Post-doctor
• Start date: March 01, 2025
• End date: February 28, 2026
• Field of knowledge: Biological Sciences - Ecology - Ecosystems Ecology
• Principal Investigator: Fábio Pinheiro
• Grantee: Vitor de Andrade Kamimura
• Supervisor: Francesco de Bello
• Host Institution: Instituto de Biologia (IB). Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP). Campinas , SP, Brazil
• Institution abroad: Universitat de València, Spain
• Associated to the scholarship: 22/09041-0 - Unraveling the processes and mechanisms that drive the dynamics and functioning of megadiverse forest communities, BP.PD

Abstract

Climate extremes, such as heatwaves and droughts, increasingly threaten forest ecosystems due to climate change, impacting species coexistence, carbon dynamics, and overall forest functioning. Understanding the ecological processes that drive community assembly, species interactions, and performance is essential for predicting tropical forests' responses to these extreme conditions. This project aims to test hypotheses regarding the effects of extreme drought on species coexistence mechanisms by examining the relationship between interspecific spatial associations (ISA) and trait dissimilarity. We will also investigate how extreme climate events affect tree performance (growth and mortality) and species interactions along an environmental gradient in tropical forests, focusing on neighborhood interactions and functional and phylogenetic divergence in shaping tree performance under drought conditions. To achieve these objectives, we will utilize a dataset of approximately 24,000 tree individuals sampled five times over 15 years across 13 plots (1 ha each) established along an elevational gradient in the Atlantic Forest, along with a dataset on traits of the most abundant species and local environmental and climate variables. Key methods include analyzing relationships between ISA and trait dissimilarities using pair-correlation functions, Mahalanobis and Euclidean distances, and Mantel tests. We will employ hierarchical Bayesian models to assess how neighborhood interactions and local environmental conditions influence tree growth and mortality under extreme climate stress. By understanding the effects of extreme drought on tree performance, species co-occurrence, interactions, and ecosystem functioning, we will address fundamental questions about tropical forest ecology while contributing to conservation strategies aimed at enhancing forest resilience amid global climate change.