Forecasting threat hotspots for known and unknown terrestrial tetrapods

• Grant number: 24/22798-9
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships abroad - Research Internship - Post-doctor
• Start date: August 31, 2025
• End date: August 30, 2026
• Field of knowledge: Biological Sciences - Ecology - Applied Ecology
• Principal Investigator: Mathias Mistretta Pires
• Grantee: Matheus de Toledo Moroti
• Supervisor: Joaquin Hortal Munoz
• Host Institution: Instituto de Biologia (IB). Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP). Campinas , SP, Brazil
• Institution abroad: Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales (MNCN), Spain
• Associated to the scholarship: 23/14506-5 - From data to discovery: Understanding the tetrapod Wallacean shortfalls through time, BP.PD

Abstract

The rapid destruction of ecosystems driven by human activities is leading to an unprecedented loss of biodiversity. By identifying and projecting areas with a high probability of hosting undiscovered species while also being at significant risk, we can strategically prioritize resources and conservation efforts. Here, we aim to integrate data on the global discovery probability of tetrapod species with threat statuses of known species to estimate the proportion of unknown species currently threatened, as well as the major threats (e.g., hunting, habitat loss, etc.) they may faze. We will use predictive models, information from the IUCN Red List, and imputation methods for threat categories to identify regions with high concentrations of threatened species in the future. Additionally, we will project potential changes in the conservation status of already described species. By combining these predictions for known and unknown species, our research seeks to optimize global conservation efforts, highlighting critical areas that may face the greatest risks in the future.