Using the demographic censuses to identify job centers: a methodological approach

• Grant number: 25/00940-0
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• Start date: April 01, 2025
• End date: March 31, 2027
• Field of knowledge: Applied Social Sciences - Economics - Regional and Urban Economics
• Principal Investigator: Carlos Roberto Azzoni
• Grantee: Gustavo Henrique Leite de Castro
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Economia, Administração, Contabilidade e Atuária (FEA). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 24/01097-2 - Sustainable growth accomodation for State of São Paulo Cities, AP.CCD

Abstract

This research project aims to develop and apply advanced spatial analysis and machine learning methodologies to identify and map intra-urban employment centers in cities in São Paulo State. From detailed data, such as those from RAIS, demographic censuses and satellite images, it seeks to understand the evolution of urban sprawl and its impact on accessibility to jobs, economic and social costs, and urban sustainability. The project integrates techniques such as the DO Index (Duranton and Overman) and econometric projections until 2040 to estimate future urban development scenarios. The expected results include the provision of robust tools for urban planning, allowing resources to be allocated efficiently, reducing spatial inequalities and improving connectivity between residential and employment areas. In addition, the research offers subsidies for the formulation of public policies that promote more efficient, accessible and environmentally sustainable cities, contributing to inclusive economic development and improving the quality of life of the population. The project also aims to fill methodological gaps and create a replicable model that can be applied in different urban contexts, strengthening the database and analyses available for future censuses.