Control of oscillations in the avian influenza model through vaccination

• Grant number: 25/05453-0
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate (Direct)
• Start date: June 01, 2025
• End date: May 31, 2029
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Physics
• Principal Investigator: Iberê Luiz Caldas
• Grantee: Ana Luiza Rodrigues de Moraes
• Host Institution: Instituto de Física (IF). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 24/05700-5 - Non linear dynamics, AP.TEM

Abstract

In this project, we will study the dynamic behavior of an epidemiological mathematical model capable of describing interspecies avian influenza, considering bird and human populations. It is a coupled compartmental model of the SI-SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) type, which has proven effective in adequately describing real cases. We aim to introduce control strategies into the model to contain the infection from birds to humans. We will study fundamental properties of the model with terms that describe vital dynamics and seasonality, thereby reproducing real-time series of infected bird populations using data from different regions of the Americas. One of the main control measures for disease transmission and infection is vaccination. Thus, by introducing vaccination into the model, we will explore how vaccination in the bird population affects human population dynamics. We will investigate the effects of bird vaccination, such as the reduction or elimination of oscillatory disease periods, thereby preventing transmission to humans.