Freshwater Transport across the SAMBA Line: Variability, Drivers, and Implications

• Grant number: 25/05519-1
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Master
• Start date: June 01, 2025
• End date: May 31, 2027
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Oceanography - Physical Oceanography
• Principal Investigator: Edmo José Dias Campos
• Grantee: Emmanuel Kobozina Magnangou
• Host Institution: Instituto Oceanográfico (IO). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 24/09961-8 - Variability of the Transports by the Deep Waters in the South Atlantic, AP.R

Abstract

The transport of freshwater across the South Atlantic plays a pivotal role in global climate regulation. Recent studies suggest that a significant negative trend in freshwater transport across the latitude 34.5 S, known as SAMBA line, could act as an early warning signal of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) heading toward a tipping point, potentially leading to its collapse with profound global climate consequences. The SAMBA (South Atlantic MOC Basin-wide Array) line provides continuous observational data essential for monitoring variability of heat and freshwater transports in this region. This study aims to quantify the seasonal-to-interannual variability of meridional freshwater transport (MOV) along the SAMBA line; investigate its primary drivers-including changes in atmospheric forcing and ocean circulation-and evaluate its broader implications for the South Atlantic freshwater budget. The analysis will integrate standard data analysis techniques with machine learning methods to enhance the detection and characterization of MOV variability. By leveraging in situ observations, reanalysis products, and numerical model simulations, this research will offer a comprehensive assessment of MOV variability and trends and its potential role in modulating regional and global climate. (AU)