Development and evaluation of calibration procedures for seasonal and subseasonal forecasts

• Grant number: 25/05870-0
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• Start date: June 01, 2025
• End date: May 31, 2028
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences - Meteorology
• Principal Investigator: Humberto Ribeiro da Rocha
• Grantee: Bruno dos Santos Guimarães
• Host Institution: Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas (IAG). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 21/11762-5 - Centre for Water and Food Security in Critical Zones, AP.CCD

Abstract

Seasonal (1 to 6 months) and subseasonal (1 to 4 weeks) forecasts gained prominence after extreme climatic events such as the El Niño events of 1982/83 and 1997/98 and the La Niña event of 1988/89, which impacted global temperature and precipitation patterns. Comparing forecasts with past observations, as done in C3S and SubC, allows both validation of model quality and adjustments for hydroclimatological applications, reducing uncertainties and improving their usefulness for society.The project's main objective is to enhance the quality and calibration of seasonal and subseasonal forecasts, which are essential for planning in sectors such as agriculture, energy, and healthcare. The research seeks two key advancements: (a) evaluating the quality of seasonal and subseasonal forecasts from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and the SubC consortium, through the development of verification procedures; and (b) developing methodologies to calibrate these forecasts, correcting deficiencies identified in previous projections. (AU)