Energy Disruptions and Geopolitical Realignments: A Strategic Perspective on the Russo-Ukrainian Conflict

• Grant number: 25/11937-0
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships abroad - Research Internship - Post-doctor
• Start date: February 01, 2026
• End date: January 31, 2027
• Field of knowledge: Humanities - Political Science - International Politics
• Principal Investigator: Rafael Antonio Duarte Villa
• Grantee: José Késsio Floro Lemos
• Supervisor: Tom Casier
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Filosofia, Letras e Ciências Humanas (FFLCH). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Institution abroad: University of Groningen, Netherlands
• Associated to the scholarship: 24/11115-8 - The War in Ukraine and Its Impacts on the Energy Strategies of Russia and the European Union, BP.PD

Abstract

The present research proposes to analyze the evolution of the energy strategies of Russia and the European Union (EU) in response to the conflict in Ukraine, which began in 2022, with an emphasis on Russia's strategic repositioning in Eurasia. The war has acted as a catalyst, triggering significant changes in the international landscape and notably impacting the energy sector. This event has altered global commercial and political dynamics related to energy. Historically, Russia has been a key supplier of oil, gas, and solid fuels to the EU. However, the war initiated in 2022 has intensified pre-existing tensions, leading to a substantial reduction in energy trade between the parties. The EU now faces the complex challenge of replacing approximately 40% of its natural gas imports from Russia without compromising its environmental policies and commitments. In turn, Europe's pursuit of diversification of its energy sources is encouraging Russia to explore new markets, especially in the Asian continent. This "pivot" to Asia poses challenges for Moscow, given the need to develop new, complex, and costly infrastructure, as well as to manage risks associated with potential new dependencies on the Asian market. Therefore, the proposed project aims to thoroughly analyze the evolution of Russia's and the EU's energy strategies, assessing the impact of these measures on the global energy market and on Russia's strategic positioning in Eurasia. The study will investigate the actors, objectives, and strategies involved in this dynamic. To achieve these goals, an integrated methodology combining case study and process-tracing will be employed. This approach is expected to enable an in-depth and detailed analysis of events, policies, and decisions, elucidating the causal chains and mechanisms underlying the observed changes, thus providing a comprehensive understanding of the interactions between international energy trade and the redistribution of international power. (AU)