Forecasting Thermal Vulnerability: Integrating behavioral thermal responses with Ecological Modeling for Neotropical Amphibians and Reptiles

• Grant number: 25/12960-6
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships abroad - Research Internship - Post-doctor
• Start date: October 01, 2025
• End date: September 30, 2026
• Field of knowledge: Biological Sciences - Ecology
• Principal Investigator: Marcio Roberto Costa Martins
• Grantee: Juan Camilo Diaz Ricaurte
• Supervisor: Julian Andres Velasco Vinasco
• Host Institution: Instituto de Biociências (IB). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Institution abroad: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), Mexico
• Associated to the scholarship: 23/14087-2 - Thermal tolerances of amphibians and reptiles from the Cerrado, Atlantic Forest and Pantanal: relationships with ecological aspects and implications for conservation, BP.PD

Abstract

This project aims to assess the thermal vulnerability of Neotropical amphibians and reptiles across four critical South American ecoregions: Amazonia, Cerrado, Pantanal, and Atlantic Forest. Our central objective is to integrate experimentally values of behavioral thermal responses (VTMax, or voluntary thermal maximum temperatures) into novel predictive and mechanistic ecological modeling approaches to accurately forecast changes in species' conservation status due to future climate change. We will achieve this by identifying and applying ecological models that effectively integrate VTMax physiological data, projecting future climate conditions using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 2-4.5 and 3-7.0 across multiple time horizons (2050, 2070, 2100) or continuously from 2025 to 2100. Thus, we will generate detailed thermal heat maps explicitly defining species' behavioral thermal tolerance limits under VTMax, and evaluating potential extinction risk by analyzing projected habitat loss, fragmentation, and the intensity of thermal stress. Also, we will map areas of vulnerability and potential refugia, quantifying and addressing model uncertainties, and informing critical conservation strategies. Our analyses will draw upon a robust dataset, including recently collected field data from the Amazon, Cerrado, and Pantanal, complemented by extensive previously published information from the Atlantic Forest and Cerrado, encompassing 131 species (69 amphibians and 62 reptiles). For current and future climate characterization, we will use the ERA5-Land dataset from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), renowned for its high temporal and spatial resolution, which will allow us to derive custom bioclimatic variables crucial for mechanistic models. Future climate scenarios will be sourced from the Climate Explorer. We hypothesize that incorporating physiological data such as VTMax will significantly enhance the accuracy of species distribution predictions and thermal vulnerability assessments, with thermal vulnerability escalating under future climate scenarios, particularly SSP3-7.0, leading to severe thermal stress responses. We also predict that species with lower VTMax values will face disproportionately higher risks of habitat loss and fragmentation, that climate change will drive substantial shifts and contractions in climatically suitable habitat, and that thermal stress hotspots will frequently coincide with regions of high biodiversity. By integrating cutting-edge physiological data with advanced ecological modeling and high-resolution climate projections, this project promises to deliver unprecedented insights into the thermal vulnerability of Neotropical amphibians and reptiles, instrumental in guiding proactive conservation strategies and informing policy decisions. (AU)