Identification of risk areas for the introduction of Avian Influenza

• Grant number: 24/14543-0
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Master
• Start date: June 01, 2025
• End date: September 30, 2026
• Field of knowledge: Agronomical Sciences - Veterinary Medicine - Preventive Veterinary Medicine
• Principal Investigator: José Henrique de Hildebrand e Grisi Filho
• Grantee: Flávia Maria Heins Medeiros
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Medicina Veterinária e Zootecnia (FMVZ). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil

Abstract

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza was recently reported for the first time in Brazil. The detections occurred mainly in migratory bird species that are considered reservoirs of the disease; however, cases in resident wild birds and subsistence domestic birds highlight the need for attention to the risks of introducing the disease into the country's poultry. Avian influenza (AI) poses both economic and public health threats and, therefore, requires surveillance and control efforts. Risk-based surveillance presents itself as a strategy for the early detection of the disease; however, important data regarding risk areas and reservoir distribution are still scarce. This study aims to build distribution models for birds considered disease reservoirs followed by mapping risk areas to identify regions most vulnerable to the introduction of avian influenza. For the development of distribution models, sighting data of the selected species, bioclimatic variables, and the MaxEnt algorithm in R will be used. For the mapping of risk areas, a model is proposed that includes the presence of domestic birds, the likely distribution of the selected wild birds, and, as a risk factor, the presence of water bodies. The expected result of the study is the elucidation of the distribution of migratory bird species important for avian influenza and the identification of threat areas for the introduction of the disease based on risk mapping. (AU)