AMAZFLOW - Project Amazon moisture transport, understanding the fluxes to La Plata Basin: past, present, and future

• Grant number: 25/02016-9
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• Start date: December 01, 2025
• End date: November 30, 2028
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences - Meteorology
• Principal Investigator: Gilvan Sampaio de Oliveira
• Grantee: Murilo da Costa Ruv Lemes
• Host Institution: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE). São José dos Campos , SP, Brazil

Abstract

The effects of global warming are present in society's daily life, impacting various economic sectors such as energy, agriculture, food production, and logistics, among others. The issue of how the increase in global average temperature, coupled with deforestation in the Amazon rainforest, affects atmospheric conditions-particularly the transport of moisture to the Paraná River Basin-is of great relevance. The objective of this study is to quantify, through observations and climate modeling (at different resolutions), the variability of moisture transport from the Amazon to the Paraná River Basin, especially in the São Paulo reservoirs region, as well as to assess the potential future impacts of climate change and deforestation. For this, ERA-5 data and Rainfall Estimates from Rain Gauge and Satellite Observations (CHIRPS) will be used as observational data. For the observational evaluation, the semi-Lagrangian particle tracking model, the Dynamic Recycling Model (DRM), will be used to identify the areas of the Amazon rainforest that contribute most to moisture in the different sub-regions of the basin. The Brazilian Atmospheric Model (CPTEC-BAM1.2) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM4), forced by Sea Surface Temperature (SST) conditions from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6, respectively), will be used to assess the impacts of deforestation on moisture flow and other climatic variables over the continent, especially for the Paraná River Basin. The deforestation scenarios will be: 00DEF (100% vegetation cover with the addition of the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario (RCP8.5)) and 100DEF (total forest conversion to pasture with RCP8.5). The Global Warming Level (GWL) index will be used as the main factor for analysis, considering a specific warming level of 2ºC. It is expected that the results will quantitatively demonstrate the contribution of Amazon moisture transport to the Paraná River Basin and identify which sub-regions have the greatest influence. Additionally, the study will show how the mentioned drivers (deforestation and high atmospheric CO2 concentrations) may impact this regime.