Different approaches considering antecedent rainfall indexes for threshold definition: research on sensitivity analysis and impact on landslide forecasting effectiveness

• Grant number: 25/19504-6
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships abroad - Research Internship - Doctorate
• Start date: May 01, 2026
• End date: October 31, 2026
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences
• Principal Investigator: Rodolfo Moreda Mendes
• Grantee: Danail Tsvetanov Metodiev
• Supervisor: Samuele Segoni
• Host Institution: Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Nacionais (CEMADEN). Cachoeira Paulista , SP, Brazil
• Institution abroad: Università degli Studi di Firenze, Italy
• Associated to the scholarship: 24/16888-5 - Precipitation and landslides correlation study to propose of critical operational thresholds in the Baixada Santista-SP region, BP.DR

Abstract

Critical rainfall thresholds related to shallow translational landslides are developed and established at operational levels within the scope of CEMADEN-MCTI's landslide early warning system (LEWS) and of São Paulo Civil Defense Prevention Plan (PPDC) at different temporal and spatial scales. The proposition of critical rainfall thresholds is based on the correlation method between landslide occurrences and precipitation indexes - simple accumulated rainfall index and the japanese method of the tank model for effective accumulated (Half-Live) rainfall that considers the antecedent water content into the ground, applied in Brazil by the GIDES project of JICA. The objective of this scholarship project is to propose updated 3D rainfall thresholds that combine traditional intensity - duration (I-D) threshold approach with the huge contribution of the effective antecedent rainfall conditions. The main intention goal of the scholarship project is to implement and apply some different approaches used in the LEWS in Italy which can improve the landslide forecasting effectiveness in Baixada Santista region (Atlantic coast of São Paulo state) considering antecedent rainfall indexes (ARI) which represent the most proximate regional soil moisture conditions related to shallow translational landslides in the study area.