"Feminicides in the State of São Paulo (2017-2026): Analysis of the Epidemiological Curve, Risk Factors, and Institutional Responses

• Grant number: 25/10393-7
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate
• Start date: November 01, 2025
• End date: February 28, 2029
• Field of knowledge: Humanities - Psychology - Social Psychology
• Principal Investigator: Alex Sandro Gomes Pessoa
• Grantee: Milaidy Müller Rossi
• Host Institution: Centro de Educação e Ciências Humanas (CECH). Universidade Federal de São Carlos (UFSCAR). São Carlos , SP, Brazil

Abstract

Femicide represents the ultimate expression of the silencing of women. In this outcome, along with her life, a woman loses her dignity, freedom, and rights. Furthermore, femicide is an extreme manifestation of violence, often preceded by a history of multiple threats, physical and psychological assaults, sexual abuse, and other violations. During the COVID-19 pandemic, this reality was exacerbated by a patriarchal logic that deprived women of the right to feel safe in their own homes, leaving them to their own fate. Both national and international literature have reported a significant increase in domestic violence cases across several countries. Evidence suggests that in São Paulo-the epicenter of the pandemic in Brazil-femicide cases rose considerably. It is therefore essential to investigate whether this increase was directly related to the pandemic or part of a rising trend that continued in the post-pandemic context. Likewise, efforts must be directed toward identifying the factors that may elevate the risk of femicide. The general objective of this study is to assess femicide rates in the state of São Paulo from 2017 to 2026, with the aim of identifying the epidemiological curve of female homicides before, during, and after the pandemic. It also seeks to gather information from the narratives contained in police reports that indicate potential risk factors for femicide. This is a mixed-method, exploratory-descriptive study comprising two complementary parts. Study 1, based on a quantitative methodology, will analyze data across three time periods: pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-pandemic. It will assess the trajectory of femicide cases in São Paulo over time. In addition to examining the patterns of the epidemiological curve, the study will describe sociodemographic characteristics of victims and perpetrators, as well as variables related to the dynamics of the crime, such as location, date, time, means of execution, victim-perpetrator relationship, presence of children or adolescents during the crime, prior reports of violence, protective measures, and instances of perpetrator suicide following the femicide. Study 2, of a qualitative nature, will explore the narratives in the "incident history" section of police reports to identify risk factors leading up to the femicide. Data will be drawn from femicide-related police reports filed at police precincts in the state of São Paulo. For the analysis in Study 1, the statistical software JASP will be used. Study 2 will be conducted using Atlas.ti for thematic analysis of the narratives, aiming to interweave empirical findings with theoretical frameworks and documentary research principles. This final stage will support the development of a Technical Guidelines Manual for Civil Police officers, with a focus on identifying risk factors and qualitatively assessing the escalation of violence at the time of registering domestic violence reports, as well as systematizing best practices for properly recording and qualifying femicide cases. The study hypothesizes that the number of femicides increased after the pandemic. Furthermore, it is hypothesized that a prior history of violence and easy access to firearms are significant risk factors for femicide. The findings are expected to contribute to the development of effective prevention and intervention strategies and policies addressing violence against women.