Survival Modeling with Cure Fraction via Promotion Mechanism and ET-Weibull Distribution

• Grant number: 25/20162-2
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
• Start date: December 01, 2025
• End date: November 30, 2026
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Probability and Statistics - Applied Probability and Statistics
• Principal Investigator: Adriano Kamimura Suzuki
• Grantee: Henrique Nardi Farbelow
• Host Institution: Instituto de Ciências Matemáticas e de Computação (ICMC). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Carlos , SP, Brazil

Abstract

We propose a survival model with a cure fraction based on the promotion mechanism, in which the baseline distribution is the Entropy-Transformed Weibull (ET-Weibull). The model accounts for a proportion of immune individuals and assigns the failure times of the susceptible ones according to the ET-Weibull distribution, providing greater flexibility in risk modeling. Inference will be conducted through maximum likelihood estimation and under a Bayesian framework via MCMC, with studies on both simulated and real data implemented in Python.