Potential for Conflict in International River Basins: A Multicriteria Approach

• Grant number: 25/23265-7
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships abroad - Research
• Start date: November 16, 2025
• End date: November 23, 2025
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences - Physical Geography
• Principal Investigator: Luis Antonio Bittar Venturi
• Grantee: Luis Antonio Bittar Venturi
• Host Investigator: Aaron Torab Wolf
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Filosofia, Letras e Ciências Humanas (FFLCH). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Institution abroad: Oregon State University (OSU), United States

Abstract

This research analyzes the conflict potential of international river basins using a multicriteria approach based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Drawing on a global dataset of 313 transboundary basins, four analytical variables were applied: presence of cooperation agreements, transboundary nature, water stress, and socioeconomic indicators. The results were spatialized in a GIS environment. The study concludes preliminarly that only a minority of these basins show a high conflict potential, which challenges the widespread narrative of future "water wars." (AU)