Population dynamics, growth models and infectious diseases

• Grant number: 08/03857-1
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• Start date: October 01, 2008
• End date: September 30, 2009
• Field of knowledge: Interdisciplinary Subjects
• Principal Investigator: Alexandre Souto Martinez
• Grantee: Aquino Lauri de Espíndola
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Filosofia, Ciências e Letras de Ribeirão Preto (FFCLRP). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Ribeirão Preto , SP, Brazil

Abstract

In this research project we propose to combine the transmission mechanism and the development of intruders’ infectious agents within hosts, applied to tuberculosis. This is done using probabilistic cellular automata, in which the levels of contact among the hosts are adjusted by local and global variables. It will be included in the model the geographical location of tuberculosis cases to allow the comparison with data from real epidemics. We also consider the migration process, which is studied through agent-based models. The evolution mechanism of the pathogens is modeled using population genetics. (AU)