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(Reference retrieved automatically from Web of Science through information on FAPESP grant and its corresponding number as mentioned in the publication by the authors.)

Assessment of impacts on basin stream flow derived from medium-term sugarcane expansion scenarios in Brazil

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Dourado Hernandes, Thayse Aparecida [1, 2] ; Scarpare, Fabio Vale [2, 3] ; Abel Seabra, Joaquim Eugenio [2]
Total Authors: 3
[1] CNPEM, Lab Nacl Ciencia & Tecnol Bioetanol CTBE, Caixa Postal 6192, BR-13083970 Campinas, SP - Brazil
[2] Univ Estadual Campinas, UNICAMP, FEM, BR-13083860 Campinas, SP - Brazil
[3] Univ Sao Paulo, CENA, Ave Centenario, 303 Sao Dimas, BR-13400970 Piracicaba, SP - Brazil
Total Affiliations: 3
Document type: Journal article
Source: AGRICULTURE ECOSYSTEMS & ENVIRONMENT; v. 259, p. 11-18, MAY 1 2018.
Web of Science Citations: 2

This study assessed the effects of land use changes driven by sugarcane expansion on the stream flow for two selected basins: Monte Mor (MM), where a stagnation in sugarcane area is expected, and Fazenda Monte Alegre (FMA), which is under intense expansion towards the Cerrado biome. The evaluation was made using a previously calibrated and validated SWAT model. Scenarios of land use changes were made based on a more realistic sugarcane expansion related to future ethanol demand and also regarding more intense expansion and other land use change trends, always considering the maintenance of natural vegetation. Modelling results show that the expected sugarcane expansion for 2030 would not bring substantial impacts on stream flow, nor on the reference flow (Q90) in flow duration curves for MM basin. For FMA basin, the expansion is expected to increase stream flow and reference flow during the dry season and decrease during the rainy season. The results suggest that the replacement of annual crops and pasture lands by sugarcane regulates the stream flow regime by decreasing stream flow peaks and, consequently, the flood risk, while also increasing water availability during the dry season. (AU)

FAPESP's process: 11/51710-2 - Integrated sustainability assessment of bioethanol production from sugarcane in Brazil
Grantee:Arnaldo Cesar da Silva Walter
Support type: Program for Research on Bioenergy (BIOEN) - Regular Program Grants