Dynamics of epidemics: Impact of easing restrictions and control of infection spread

Author(s)

de Souza, Silvio L. T. ^[1] ; Batista, Antonio M. ^{[2, 3]} ; Caldas, Ibere L. ^[2] ; Iarosz, Kelly C. ^{[2, 4, 5]} ; Szezech Jr, Jose D.

Affiliation

^[1] Univ Fed Sao Joao del Rei, Campus Ctr Oeste, BR-35501296 Divinopolis, MG - Brazil

^[2] Univ Sao Paulo, Inst Phys, BR-05508090 Sao Paulo, SP - Brazil

^[3] Univ Estadual Ponta Grossa, Dept Math & Stat, BR-84030900 Ponta Grossa, PR - Brazil

^[4] FATEB, Fac Telemaco Borba, BR-84266010 Telemaco Borba, PR - Brazil

^[5] Fed Technol Univ Paranci, Grad Program Chem Engn, BR-84016210 Ponta Grossa, PR - Brazil

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: CHAOS SOLITONS & FRACTALS; v. 142, JAN 2021.
• Web of Science Citations: 0

Abstract

During an infectious disease outbreak, mathematical models and computational simulations are essential tools to characterize the epidemic dynamics and aid in design public health policies. Using these tools, we provide an overview of the possible scenarios for the COVID-19 pandemic in the phase of easing restrictions used to reopen the economy and society. To investigate the dynamics of this outbreak, we consider a deterministic compartmental model (SEIR model) with an additional parameter to simulate the restrictions. In general, as a consequence of easing restrictions, we obtain scenarios characterized by high spikes of infections indicating significant acceleration of the spreading disease. Finally, we show how such undesirable scenarios could be avoided by a control strategy of successive partial easing restrictions, namely, we tailor a successive sequence of the additional parameter to prevent spikes in phases of low rate of transmissibility. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 18/03211-6 - Non linear dynamics
• Grantee: Iberê Luiz Caldas
• Support Opportunities: Research Projects - Thematic Grants