| Full text | |
| Author(s): |
Aransiola, Temidayo James
;
Justus, Marcelo
;
Ceccato, Vania
Total Authors: 3
|
| Document type: | Journal article |
| Source: | JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION SECURITY; v. 16, n. 1, p. 28-pg., 2023-12-01. |
| Abstract | |
The objective of this study is to contribute to the growing literature on cargo theft by empirically testing four specific hypotheses of its causes - the space-time dynamics hypothesis, the economic attractiveness hypothesis, the social structure hypothesis, and the deterrence hypothesis. This study investigates the case of the economic core of one of the most severe regions regarding cargo theft worldwide - Sao Paulo state. As novelty in crime studies, we estimate Autorrregressive Distributed Lag models (ARDL). We found that the number of cargo thefts of a geographic area can be predicted by itself and that of neigbouring areas. This is an unprescendeted empirical evidence that cargo theft time series are autoregressive and cointegrated. Regarding economic attractiveness and social structure, the results are inconclusive. However, police activity reduces cargo theft in the large metropolitan area and inland municipalities of Sao Paulo state. (AU) | |
| FAPESP's process: | 16/23475-2 - Economic essays on crime in OECD member countries and Brazil |
| Grantee: | Temidayo James Aransiola |
| Support Opportunities: | Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate |
| FAPESP's process: | 18/14236-0 - Economic essays on rural crime and cargo theft in Brazil |
| Grantee: | Temidayo James Aransiola |
| Support Opportunities: | Scholarships abroad - Research Internship - Doctorate |