| Full text | |
| Author(s): |
Cabezas, Luben M. C.
;
Otto, Mateus P.
;
Izbicki, Rafael
;
Stern, Rafael B.
Total Authors: 4
|
| Document type: | Journal article |
| Source: | INFORMATION SCIENCES; v. 686, p. 31-pg., 2024-08-27. |
| Abstract | |
In predictive modeling, quantifying prediction uncertainty is crucial for reliable decision- making. Traditional conformal inference methods provide marginally valid predictive regions but often produce non-adaptive intervals when naively applied to regression, potentially biasing applications. Recent advances using quantile regressors or conditional density estimators improve adaptability but are typically tied to specific prediction models, limiting their ability to quantify uncertainty around arbitrary models. Similarly, methods based on partitioning the feature space adopt sub-optimal strategies, failing to consistently measure predictive uncertainty across the feature space, especially in adversarial examples. This paper introduces a model-agnostic family of methods to calibrate prediction intervals for regression with local coverage guarantees. By leveraging regression trees and Random Forests, our approach constructs data-adaptive partitions of the feature space to approximate conditional coverage, enhancing the accuracy and scalability of prediction intervals. Our methods outperform established benchmarks on simulated and real- world datasets. They are implemented in the Python package clover, , which integrates seamlessly with the scikit-learn interface for practical application. (AU) | |
| FAPESP's process: | 23/07068-1 - Statistical machine learning: toward better uncertainty quantification |
| Grantee: | Rafael Izbicki |
| Support Opportunities: | Regular Research Grants |
| FAPESP's process: | 13/07699-0 - Research, Innovation and Dissemination Center for Neuromathematics - NeuroMat |
| Grantee: | Oswaldo Baffa Filho |
| Support Opportunities: | Research Grants - Research, Innovation and Dissemination Centers - RIDC |
| FAPESP's process: | 19/11321-9 - Neural networks in statistical inference problems |
| Grantee: | Rafael Izbicki |
| Support Opportunities: | Regular Research Grants |
| FAPESP's process: | 22/08579-7 - Validation and calibration of prediction models |
| Grantee: | Luben Miguel Cruz Cabezas |
| Support Opportunities: | Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate (Direct) |
| FAPESP's process: | 21/02178-8 - Scalable Variable Selection for Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces Methods |
| Grantee: | Mateus Piovezan Otto |
| Support Opportunities: | Scholarships in Brazil - Master |