Predicting temperatures in Brazilian states capitals via Machine Learning

Author(s)

da Silva, Sidney T. ; Gabrick, Enrique C. ; de Moraes, Ana Luiza R. ; Viana, Ricardo L. ; Batista, Antonio M. ; Caldas, Ibere L. ; Kurths, Juergen

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: European Physical Journal-Special Topics; v. N/A, p. 20-pg., 2025-06-02.

Abstract

Climate change refers to substantial long-term variations in weather patterns. In this work, we employ a Machine Learning (ML) technique, the Random Forest (RF) algorithm, to forecast the monthly average temperature for Brazilian's states capitals (27 cities) and the whole country, from January 1961 to December 2022. To forecast the temperature at k-month, we consider as features in RF: (i) global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$_2$$\end{document}), methane (CH4\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$_4$$\end{document}), and nitrous oxide (N2\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$_2$$\end{document}O) at k-month; (ii) temperatures from the previous three months, i.e., (k-1)\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$(k-1)$$\end{document}, (k-2)\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$(k-2)$$\end{document} and (k-3)\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$(k-3)$$\end{document}-month; (iii) combination of i and ii. By investigating breakpoints in the times series, we discover that 24 cities and the gases present breakpoints in the 80's and 90's. After the breakpoints, we find an increase in the temperature and the gas emission. Thereafter, we separate the cities according to their geographical position and employ the RF algorithm to forecast the temperature from 2010-08 until 2022-12. Based on i, ii, and iii, we find that the three inputs result in a very precise forecast, with a normalized root mean squared error (NMRSE) less than 0.083 for the considered cases. From our simulations, the better forecasted region is Northeast through iii (NMRSE = 0.012). Furthermore, we also investigate the forecasting of anomalous temperature data by removing the annual component of each time series. In this case, the best forecasting is obtained with strategy i, with the best region being Northeast (NRMSE = 0.090). (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 25/02318-5 - Dynamics of a host-vector model with nonlocal coupling
• Grantee: Enrique Chipicoski Gabrick
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• FAPESP's process: 22/13761-9 - Complex Systems Dynamics
• Grantee: Iberê Luiz Caldas
• Support Opportunities: Research Grants - Visiting Researcher Grant - Brazil
• FAPESP's process: 18/03211-6 - Non linear dynamics
• Grantee: Iberê Luiz Caldas
• Support Opportunities: Research Projects - Thematic Grants
• FAPESP's process: 24/14478-4 - Machine Learning in Complex Systems
• Grantee: Iberê Luiz Caldas
• Support Opportunities: Research Grants - Visiting Researcher Grant - Brazil
• FAPESP's process: 24/05700-5 - Non linear dynamics
• Grantee: Iberê Luiz Caldas
• Support Opportunities: Research Projects - Thematic Grants