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The law of large numbers for stochastic rumor models

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Author(s):
Lebensztayn, Elcio ; Santos, Lucas Sousa
Total Authors: 2
Document type: Journal article
Source: EXPOSITIONES MATHEMATICAE; v. 43, n. 5, p. 12-pg., 2025-09-25.
Abstract

We investigate the generalization of the Maki-Thompson model for the spreading of a rumor through a finite population in which each spreader stops transmitting the rumor right after being involved in k unsuccessful telling interactions. We prove that the proportion of people unaware of the rumor at the end of the process converges in probability to a constant, as the population size goes to infinity. The proof relies on an application of the martingale stopping theorem and is based upon the case k = 1 established by Sudbury (1985), but our approach for proving the convergence is simpler, reducing technicalities. (c) 2025 Elsevier GmbH. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies. (AU)

FAPESP's process: 23/13453-5 - Stochastic systems modeling
Grantee:Luiz Renato Gonçalves Fontes
Support Opportunities: Research Projects - Thematic Grants