Mathematical models describing the COVID-19 pandemic

• Grant number: 20/14357-1
• Support Opportunities: Regular Research Grants
• Start date: June 01, 2021
• End date: May 31, 2023
• Field of knowledge: Engineering - Biomedical Engineering
• Principal Investigator: Henrique Mohallem Paiva
• Grantee: Henrique Mohallem Paiva
• Host Institution: Instituto de Ciência e Tecnologia (ICT). Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP). Campus São José dos Campos. São José dos Campos , SP, Brazil

Abstract

The objective of this project is to propose new mathematical models to describe the COVID-19 pandemic, which will be valid for different regions of the world, at different territorial levels (countries, states, municipalities). An automatic methodology to calibrate the models, without requiring intervention from experts, will be proposed, such that the analysis could be performed even in regions with limited financial resources. New techniques for trend analysis will be developed, in order to provide relevant information to health authorities. Predictions will be performed concerning the future behavior of the pandemic, with special focus on the number of nursing beds and intensive care units (ICUs). The models to be proposed will be such that they may be generalized to other epidemics in the future. The analyses will use information from the websites of the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Johns Hopkins University, São Paulo State Department of Health and Brasil.io Project. The results will be assessed through theoretical analyses, comparisons with similar results from the literature and, mainly, comparison between simulated and real results. Articles will be published in journals and conferences. At least two master's theses will be supervised. (AU)

Scientific publications

(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)

PAIVA, HENRIQUE MOHALLEM; MAGALHAES AFONSO, RUBENS JUNQUEIRA; SANCHES, DAVI GONCALVES; RIBEIRO PELOGIA, FREDERICO JOSE. Study of the COVID-19 pandemic trending behavior in Israeli cities. IFAC PAPERSONLINE, v. 54, n. 15, p. 6-pg., 2021-11-02. (20/14357-1, 19/18294-7)

PAIVA, HENRIQUE MOHALLEM; MAGALHAES AFONSO, RUBENS JUNQUEIRA; SANCHES, DAVI GONCALVES; IEEE. Forecast of the occupancy of standard and intensive care unit beds by COVID-19 inpatients. 2022 EUROPEAN CONTROL CONFERENCE (ECC), v. N/A, p. 6-pg., 2022-01-01. (20/14357-1, 19/18294-7)

PAIVA, HENRIQUE MOHALLEM; MAGALHAES AFONSO, RUBENS JUNQUEIRA; SANCHES, DAVI GONCALVES; RIBEIRO PELOGIA, FREDERICO JOSE; IEEE. COVID-19 Trend Analysis in Mexican States and Cities. 2021 43RD ANNUAL INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF THE IEEE ENGINEERING IN MEDICINE & BIOLOGY SOCIETY (EMBC), v. N/A, p. 4-pg., 2021-01-01. (20/14357-1)