Application of ex ante simulations for early childhood public policies: modeling of complex systems for data and evidence-oriented decisions in the delineation of the Plurianual Plan.

• Grant number: 23/09342-3
• Support Opportunities: Research Grants - Research in Public Policies
• Start date: May 01, 2024
• End date: April 30, 2026
• Field of knowledge: Humanities - Political Science - Public Policies
• Principal Investigator: Flávia Mori Sarti
• Grantee: Flávia Mori Sarti
• Host Institution: Escola de Artes, Ciências e Humanidades (EACH). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated researchers: Daniel Francisco Boriero ; Rafael Pereira da Silva ; Robson Pereira Aleixo ; Tadeusz Gregorio Alabi
• Associated scholarship(s): 24/09152-2 - Identification and sistematization of socioeconomic indicators for input in the simulator of public policy for early childhood. Development of geospatial analysis and evaluation of outputs of the computational modeling., BP.TT; 24/09155-1 - Identification and sistematization of socioeconomic indicators and early childhood programs for input in the simulator of early childhood public policies. Evaluation of the model outputs and translation of knowledge for public sector managers., BP.TT; 24/09124-9 - Implementation of the data extraction, transformation, and uploading process, using big data tools for processing high volume of data in the application of computational simulations for early childhood policies., BP.TT

Abstract

The purpose of this project is to enhance the data-driven capacity of Campinas City Hall in translating its Municipal Plan for Early Childhood (2018) into the Pluriannual Plan - PPA (2025-2028) that reflects programs and goals for early childhood development in Campinas.To achieve this, ex ante simulations of public policies will be conducted using computational modeling techniques to evaluate scenarios for more effective resource allocation in order to achieve the goals proposed by the Brazilian Cities Sustainable Development Index (IDSC-BR).The simulation results will be valuable for the managers of the Infância Campineira Program, as well as other Sectorial Secretariats responsible for implementing programs related to early childhood development. To develop a PPA that aligns with the needs of the Campinas public, it is crucial for the managers to be aware of their responsibilities regarding child development.Ex ante simulations of public policies rely on complex systems modeling techniques to create computational models capable of evaluating the potential impact of programs before implementation. The deliverables will be aligned with the City Hall's requirements, providing data in open formats, reports, or web-based visualizations.The Partner Institution will be responsible for providing access to public data that is currently not available through the City Hall's active transparency efforts (excluding data protected by the General Data Protection Law) and ensuring that the data output (or generated scientific knowledge) is valuable for planning decisions related to the development of the PPA.The primary objective is to evaluate potential scenarios for reducing poverty in early childhood in Campinas, focusing on ex ante computer simulations of programs in the areas of health, social assistance, and education to ensure the attainment of goals defined in the Brazilian Cities Sustainable Development Index and incorporated into the PPA.The main risks involved include the non-utilization or limited consideration of scientific knowledge in the public management process. These risks encompass external dependency for decision-making, the need for consultation or deliberation by councils or other entities, budget constraints, conflicts of interest, competing priorities from other sectors, legal restrictions, and uncertainties regarding the timeframe of scientific research results in relation to the public management process. These risks will be identified and effectively addressed throughout the project with appropriate mitigation measures and ongoing monitoring. (AU)