Land Use Change Investigation and Regional Climate (LIRIC): insights from convection- permitting simulations in Sao Paulo, Guandu and Bristol

• Grant number: 24/06319-3
• Support Opportunities: Regular Research Grants
• Start date: October 01, 2024
• End date: September 30, 2026
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences - Meteorology
• Principal Investigator: Rosmeri Porfírio da Rocha
• Grantee: Rosmeri Porfírio da Rocha
• Principal researcher abroad: Kwok Pan Chun
• Institution abroad: University of the West of England, Bristol, England
• Host Institution: Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas (IAG). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated researchers: Maria Laura Bettolli ; Thanti Octavianti
• Associated research grant: 22/05476-2 - Investigating the past and future trends of cyclone formations/transitions over the South Atlantic Ocean basin, AP.R
• Associated scholarship(s): 25/04513-0 - The roles of topography (Serra do Mar e da Mantiqueira) and land use in the development of cyclones over southeast Brazil, BP.MS

Abstract

Increasing supercomputer power has allowed climate projections to be run at a resolution, with kilometre-scale grid spacing. In this high resolution, convection-permitting models (CPMs) allow the organised vertical transport of heat and moisture in the atmosphere to be represented explicitly on the model grid, without the need for parameterisation based on empirical relationships. CPMs have been shown to provide realistic temperature and precipitation simulations with statistical properties of localised extreme events, not captured by coarser resolution models. Despite the significant advances CPMs offer, there is an immediate need to quantify the impact of land use changes related to building density and heights on regional climate-for promoting climate change action related to environmental management and urban planning in different parts of the globe.In this project, we propose to generate and compare CPM simulations for three regions: Guandu in northern Taiwan, São Paulo in southeast Brazil, and Bristol in the southwest UK, that have distinct land use characteristics and unique climate features. Analysing the temperature and precipitation fields of the simulations will improve our understanding of the impact of land use changes on regional climate. The results of the CPM simulations will then be visualised using immersive results of the CPM simulations will then be visualised using immersive technology to create impacts of using CPM with stakeholders of regional planning in the UK, South America, and Taiwan.To do this, we are extending the collaboration between Bristol and São Paolo where researchers have led several CPM studies, to include researchers at the National University of Taiwan who have complementary urban and environmental management expertise. The CPM simulations for northern Taiwan and southeast Brazil will be undertaken in the first 7 months of the project and results will be compared with the southwest UK ensembles from the Europe Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (Europe- CORDEX) and UKCP18 to analyse the impact of different land uses, including cropland, to urban areas on temperature and precipitation patterns. A workshop in Brazil at the end of the first year will discuss these findings and consolidate research activities with the South American Affinity Group. This will be followed by hydroclimate analysis to evaluate how land use changes related to deforestation and urbanisation affect joint distribution of precipitation and temperature. Findings will be discussed in a workshop in Taiwan in the second year of the project.Immersive materials (presentation of scientific results in 3D digital format) will then be developed for the final workshop in Bristol with the atmospheric, hydroclimate and environmental management communities including the South America CORDEX team, the UK Met office, and Taiwanese urban planning and modelling groups. This will be a forum for presenting the results of the project and for initiating an interdisciplinary application to support future collaborative research activities, to expand the scientific community engaged with CPM research focusing on the local climate impact studies. All the workshops will be open to the wider urban and environmental management research communities and involvement of diverse stakeholders equally and inclusively. The findings will influence regional sustainability planning and policy-making based on refined horizontal and temporal scales of convection-permitting models.Overall, the findings will inform sub-national and local land use planning by considering how changes in land use can affect future localised temperature and precipitation extremes of regional climate for achieving Sustainable Develop Goal 13 Climate Action. (AU)