Population projections with prediction intervals for municipalities in São Paulo, and the possible impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on population trends.

• Grant number: 24/16631-4
• Support Opportunities: Research Grants - Visiting Researcher Grant - Brazil
• Start date: February 03, 2025
• End date: February 02, 2026
• Field of knowledge: Applied Social Sciences - Demography - Population Trends
• Principal Investigator: EVERTON EMANUEL CAMPOS DE LIMA
• Grantee: EVERTON EMANUEL CAMPOS DE LIMA
• Visiting researcher: Flavio Henrique Miranda de Araujo Freire
• Visiting researcher institution: Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN). Centro de Ciências Exatas e da Terra (CCET), Brazil
• Host Institution: Instituto de Filosofia e Ciências Humanas (IFCH). Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP). Campinas , SP, Brazil

Abstract

The most recent population projection for Brazil and its Federal Units, presented by the IBGE, dates back to 2018. These results highlighted the ongoing trend of population aging in Brazil, driven by a continued decline in fertility rates, although at a slower pace compared to previous periods, stabilizing as the projection horizon approaches. Regarding mortality, the projections anticipated systematic increases in life expectancy across all Federal Units. However, the years 2020 and 2021 introduced an unexpected scenario, marked by excess deaths and a reduction in births, as noted by various researchers and published studies. The initial findings from the 2022 Census further indicate a slowdown in population growth, reinforcing the hypothesis of a decline in birth rates. This evolving context significantly heightens the uncertainties in population projections. In response, this study aims to project the population of the State of São Paulo and its municipalities by sex and five-year age groups, while incorporating uncertainty measurements into the results. Bayesian inference will be applied to project the demographic components of the State of São Paulo, following the methodology used by the United Nations for population projections in various countries. Municipal projections will be derived from the prediction intervals of the state-level projections, maintaining a breakdown by five-year age groups and sex. For selected municipalities, an analysis of the impact of variations in demographic parameters (mortality and fertility) will also be conducted, taking into account recent trends resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. (AU)