Ocean Controls on Extreme Droughts Across the Tropical-South Atlantic (OCOD-TSA)

• Grant number: 24/19122-3
• Support Opportunities: Regular Research Grants
• Start date: February 01, 2025
• End date: January 31, 2027
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Oceanography - Physical Oceanography
• Mobility Program: SPRINT - Projetos de pesquisa - Mobilidade
• Principal Investigator: Ilana Elazari Klein Coaracy Wainer
• Grantee: Ilana Elazari Klein Coaracy Wainer
• Principal researcher abroad: Myriam KHODRI
• Institution abroad: Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), France
• Host Institution: Instituto Oceanográfico (IO). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 20/14356-5 - The Santos Bifurcation: present and past, AP.PFPMCG.TEM

Abstract

OCOD-TSA research project aims at improving our understanding of the mechanisms underlying Tropical and South Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) low frequency variability and sensitivity to natural (i.e. solar, orbital, volcanoes) and anthropogenic forcings (i.e. greenhouse gases) and its influence on hydro-climates of surrounding regions. Tropical and South Atlantic SST may have varying impacts on rainfall under different climate backgrounds so that constraining its sensitivity to external forcings from the recent instrumental observations window remains fraught with uncertainties. To comprehend how external forcings interact with oceanic controls and modulate extremes rainfalls in North Eastern Brazil and West Africa under distinct climatic conditions and time scales, this research project adopts a paleoclimatic perspective coupling climate modeling and observational proxy records across: (1) the Middle Pliocene Warm Period (~3.0 million years ago), (2) the last Interglacial (120 kyr BP) and mid-Holocene (6 kyr BP) and (3) the more recent last 1000 years to investigate internal climate variability and sensitivity to natural and early anthropogenic forcings. By utilizing paleoclimatic information, the project will provide a long-term perspective on the range of possible climate variations and extremes that these regions may face in the future. Besides contributing to the training of the next generation of climate scientists, we will communicate our findings to a wider community to explore their potential relevance for improving socio-economic and environmental resilience of these regions to future droughts and pluvials. (AU)