Mathematical and Statistical Modeling of Podisus nigrispinus (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) and Anaphes nitens (Hymenoptera: Mymaridae) on Gonipterus platensis (Coleoptera: Curculionidae): Population Dynamics and Functional and Numerical Responses

• Grant number: 24/16265-8
• Support Opportunities: Regular Research Grants
• Start date: September 01, 2025
• End date: August 31, 2027
• Field of knowledge: Agronomical Sciences - Agronomy - Plant Health
• Principal Investigator: Marcelo Nogueira Rossi
• Grantee: Marcelo Nogueira Rossi
• Host Institution: Instituto de Ciências Ambientais, Químicas e Farmacêuticas (ICAQF). Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP). Campus Diadema. Diadema , SP, Brazil
• Associated researchers: Rafael de Andrade Moral ; Wesley Augusto Conde Godoy

Abstract

Gonipterus platensis is considered the most important defoliating species of Eucalyptus in the world. In Brazil, this pest has occurred in the states of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, Paraná, Espírito Santo, Bahia and São Paulo. Although it feeds on several species of Eucalyptus, the main species attacked in Brazil are Eucalyptus grandis and Eucalyptus urophylla. Predation and parasitism (i.e., parasitoidism) are relevant population interactions, in which the predator or parasitoid benefits from the interaction, leading to the death of the prey or host, respectively, in the vast majority of the cases. In this project, the functional and numerical responses of the predator Podisus nigrispinus and the parasitoid Anaphes nitens will be studied on the pest G. platensis, determining the strength of interaction of these natural enemies as well as the potential of these insects as biological control agents of G. platensis. Functional and numerical response patterns will be experimentally investigated using E. urophylla as the host plant. Then, a mathematical model with a life stage structure will be developed with the aim of making long-term predictions about the population dynamics of G. platensis, with A. nitens and P. nigrispinus as natural enemies. The connection between experimentation and mathematical modeling will allow estimates and predictions within more confident thresholds, since the mathematical modeling will be guided by experimental data. Through this project, it will also be possible to train human resources specialized in biological control and insect ecology, areas that have been growing substantially throughout this country. (AU)