IDENTIFICATION OF CHILDREN AND ADOLESCENTS AT RISK FOR MENTAL DISORDERS: A transdiagnostic predictive model for Developmental Psychiatry

• Grant number: 24/19572-9
• Support Opportunities: Generation Project Research Grant
• Start date: February 01, 2026
• End date: January 31, 2031
• Field of knowledge: Health Sciences - Medicine - Psychiatry
• Principal Investigator: Arthur Caye
• Grantee: Arthur Caye
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Medicina (FM). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• City of the host institution: São Paulo
• Associated researchers: Alicia Matijasevich Manitto ; Christian Costa Kieling ; Eurípedes Constantino Miguel Filho ; Giovanni Abrahão Salum Júnior ; Gisele Gus Manfro ; Luis Augusto Paim Rohde ; Mauricio Scopel Hoffmann ; Paulo Rossi Menezes ; Pedro Mario Pan Neto

Abstract

This project aims to develop and validate a new approach for the early and personalized identification of mental disorders in children and adolescents, through multivariate risk scores using advanced machine learning techniques. The research will be conducted in two complementary phases. In the first phase, the objective is to create a transdiagnostic predictive model capable of estimating the individual psychopathological risk of young people, combining data collected over several assessment waves of the Brazilian Transgenerational High Risk Cohort for Mental Conditions (BHRCS), the 2004 Pelotas Cohort, and the North American Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) study. In addition to validating the model internally and in independent samples, the project will use statistical analyses and ensemble algorithms (Super Learner) to ensure greater accuracy and predictive robustness, overcoming common limitations such as the low replicability observed in previous studies. In the second phase, the research will deepen the understanding of the neurobiological processes associated with the risk of developing mental disorders, investigating genetic, epigenetic, inflammatory and structural brain factors. This phase will allow us to better understand the neurobiology underlying different stages of the disease - from premorbid states to the development of severe psychopathologies - using samples of young people with low, medium and high psychopathological risk. The goal is to identify biomarkers and potential targets for early preventive interventions, using interest groups that go beyond the traditional classification of psychiatric disorders. The project foresees the establishment of collaborations with international institutions such as the Child Mind Institute and Duke University. If successful, the project could take a significant step towards more personalized treatment in Psychiatry, shifting the focus of mental health from a model based on reaction and delayed treatment to a predictive and potentially preventive model. By identifying children and adolescents at risk early, it will be possible to support intervention research with targeted prevention, which is essential to combat the impact of mental disorders throughout the life cycle, improve the well-being of young people and reduce the economic and social burden associated with these disorders. In addition, the results may help establish Brazil as a center of excellence in precision medicine research in psychiatry, fostering other research in the area and its multiple developments. (AU)