An integrated seasonal forecasting system for South America

• Grant number: 05/05210-7
• Support Opportunities: Research Grants - Young Investigators Grants
• Start date: July 01, 2006
• End date: July 31, 2010
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences - Meteorology
• Principal Investigator: Caio Augusto dos Santos Coelho
• Grantee: Caio Augusto dos Santos Coelho
• Host Institution: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE). Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação (Brasil). São José dos Campos , SP, Brazil

Abstract

This research project proposes the implementation of an objective integrated forecasting system at the Centre for Weather Prediction and Climate Studies (CPTEC) for producing well-calibrated probabilistic seasonal forecasts for South America. The system is composed by two components: 1) a multi-model ensemble, composed by four coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamical models (the CPTEC coupled model plus three European coupled models) and 2) an empirical (statistical) model that uses Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperatures as predictors for rainfall and temperature over South America. The predictions of these two components will be integrated, i.e. combined and calibrated, using a Bayesian procedure for producing a single probabilistic forecast that gathers all available information at the time the forecast is issued. The quality of the predictions produced by each component of the proposed system as well as of the forecasts produced by the integrated system will be assessed using standard deterministic and probabilistic forecast verification measures. Therefore, this project will contribute for scientific and technological developments in three areas: 1) multi-model seasonal forecasting; 2) calibration and combination of probabilistic seasonal forecasts and 3) forecast verification. It is expected that at the end of the project it will be possible to quantify how well predictable are the climate variations observed over South America on the seasonal time scale. The project will also develop applied research, focusing on governmental activities that use seasonal forecast information (e.g. water resource management for the hydropower sector for electricity production). (AU)

Scientific publications

(10)

(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)

PEZZA, ALEXANDRE BERNARDES; SIMMONDS, IAN; COELHO, CAIO A. S.. The unusual Buenos Aires snowfall of July 2007. Atmospheric Science Letters, v. 11, n. 4, p. 249-254, OCT-DEC 2010. (05/05210-7)

COELHO, CAIO A. S.; GODDARD, LISA. El Nino-Induced Tropical Droughts in Climate Change Projections. Journal of Climate, v. 22, n. 23, p. 6456-6476, DEC 1 2009. (05/05210-7)

COELHO, CAIO A. S.; COSTA, SIMONE M. S.. Challenges for integrating seasonal climate forecasts in user applications. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, v. 2, n. 5-6, p. 317-325, DEC 2010. (05/05210-7)

STEPHENSON, D. B.; COELHO, C. A. S.; JOLLIFFE, I. T.. Two extra components in the Brier score decomposition. WEATHER AND FORECASTING, v. 23, n. 4, p. 752-757, AUG 2008. (05/05210-7)

DOBLAS-REYES‚ FJ; COELHO‚ CAS; STEPHENSON‚ DB. How much does simplification of probability forecasts reduce forecast quality?. METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS, v. 15, n. 1, p. 155-162, 2008. (05/05210-7)

SHONGWE‚ M.E.; FERRO‚ C.A.T.; COELHO‚ C.A.S.; JAN VAN OLDENBORGH‚ G.. Predictability of cold spring seasons in Europe. MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW, v. 135, n. 12, p. 4185-4201, 2007. (05/05210-7)

LOWE, RACHEL; BAILEY, TREVOR C.; STEPHENSON, DAVID B.; GRAHAM, RICHARD J.; COELHO, CAIO A. S.; CARVALHO, MARILIA SA; BARCELLOS, CHRISTOVAM. Spatio-temporal modelling of climate-sensitive disease risk: Towards an early warning system for dengue in Brazil. Computers & Geosciences, v. 37, n. 3, p. 11-pg., 2011-03-01. (05/05210-7)

LOWE, RACHEL; BAILEY, TREVOR C.; STEPHENSON, DAVID B.; GRAHAM, RICHARD J.; COELHO, CAIO A. S.; CARVALHO, MARILIA SA; BARCELLOS, CHRISTOVAM. Spatio-temporal modelling of climate-sensitive disease risk: Towards an early warning system for dengue in Brazil. Computers & Geosciences, v. 37, n. 3, SI, p. 371-381, MAR 2011. (05/05210-7)

JUPP, TIM E.; LOWE, RACHEL; COELHO, CAIO A. S.; STEPHENSON, DAVID B.. On the visualization, verification and recalibration of ternary probabilistic forecasts. PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND, v. 370, n. 1962, SI, p. 1100-1120, MAR 13 2012. (05/05210-7)

JUPP, TIM E.; LOWE, RACHEL; COELHO, CAIO A. S.; STEPHENSON, DAVID B.. On the visualization, verification and recalibration of ternary probabilistic forecasts. PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND, v. 370, n. 1962, p. 21-pg., 2012-03-13. (05/05210-7)