Modeling of repairable systems with fragility and competitive risks

• Grant number: 17/08159-0
• Support Opportunities: Regular Research Grants
• Start date: September 01, 2017
• End date: August 31, 2019
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Probability and Statistics - Applied Probability and Statistics
• Principal Investigator: Vera Lucia Damasceno Tomazella
• Grantee: Vera Lucia Damasceno Tomazella
• Host Institution: Centro de Ciências Exatas e de Tecnologia (CCET). Universidade Federal de São Carlos (UFSCAR). São Carlos , SP, Brazil

Abstract

In industries composed of complex equipment, often arranged in series, a simple failure can mean the shutdown of the production line as a whole, generating enormous financial losses and inconvenience. Since the 1980s, the operation and maintenance of industrial plants have become recognized as important disciplines for the success of corporate strategies as well as product development and manufacturing engineering. One of the main contributors to this situation lies in the decisive role that operation and maintenance play in issues ranging from environmental and safety factors to the level of profitability of companies. Probabilistic and statistical models for analyzing and optimizing the performance of repairable systems have been widely discussed in the literature. Such models should be able to describe the occurrence of events (failures) over time, as well as the effect of corrective maintenance (repairs). So any study aimed at determining a suitable policy for repairable systems should be based on such models. Thus, this project has as main objective the development of statistical models for the analysis of equipment failure and repair data, aiming to subsidize the elaboration of an optimal maintenance policy, proposing models that incorporate effects of observable and unobservable observations of different types of (Fragility) and in situations in which the system in series is subject to multiple causes of failures (Competitive Risks). (AU)