Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of water footprint application and its scenarios on watersheds

• Grant number: 12/05515-6
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships abroad - Research Internship - Doctorate
• Start date: April 01, 2013
• End date: January 31, 2014
• Field of knowledge: Engineering - Sanitary Engineering - Water Resources
• Principal Investigator: Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
• Grantee: Dulce Buchala Bicca Rodrigues
• Supervisor: Hoshin Vijai Gupta
• Host Institution: Escola de Engenharia de São Carlos (EESC). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Carlos , SP, Brazil
• Institution abroad: University of Arizona, United States
• Associated to the scholarship: 11/11653-0 - New model of water demand management in watersheds: Methodological bases for assessment and mitigation of Water Footprint, BP.DR

Abstract

The Water Footprint indicator has been gained ever wider space in several areas of study and market niches, however, it has also been an object of several questions about the reliability of the results released for the products and sectors all over the world. Our primary goal here is to propose the analysis of sensitivity and uncertainty of the WF´s components (WFblue, WFgreen and WFgrey) and the total WF, as well as checking the uncertainty propagation in the next stages of assessment, mitigation and scenarios of WF in watersheds. In this study, we will use the following methodologies for uncertainty analysis: Séries de Taylor; Bayesian Recursive parameter Estimation (BaRE); Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC); e Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE). While the sensitivity analysis will be assessed by Monte Carlo simulation. The uncertainty scenarios will be evaluated in the steps of defining and implementing the scenarios proposed. Thus, taking into account international collaboration, we hope that project results can help the consolidate an adequate methodology for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the WF results. Moreover, we expect to help develop this study theme, which is still little explored in Brazil, but is very important in the water resources management context. We intend to disclose of the results in the form of 2 papers to be published in journals with high impact factor at water resources area, as well as the presentation and discussion in national and international scientific events. (AU)

Scientific publications

(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)

RODRIGUES, DULCE B. B.; GUPTA, HOSHIN V.; MENDIONDO, EDUARDO M.; OLIVEIRA, PAULO TARSO S.. Assessing uncertainties in surface water security: An empirical multimodel approach. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, v. 51, n. 11, p. 9013-9028, NOV 2015. (12/05515-6, 15/05134-0, 11/11653-0, 08/58161-1)

RODRIGUES, DULCE B. B.; GUPTA, HOSHIN V.; SERRAT-CAPDEVILA, ALEIX; OLIVEIRA, PAULO T. S.; MARIO MENDIONDO, E.; MADDOCK, III, THOMAS; MAHMOUD, MOHAMMED. Contrasting American and Brazilian Systems for Water Allocation and Transfers. JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT, v. 141, n. 7, JUL 2015. (12/05515-6, 08/58161-1, 11/11653-0)

RODRIGUES, DULCE B. B.; GUPTA, HOSHIN V.; MENDIONDO, EDUARDO M.. A blue/green water-based accounting framework for assessment of water security. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, v. 50, n. 9, p. 7187-7205, SEP 2014. (12/05515-6, 08/58161-1, 11/11653-0)