Scholarship 13/02797-3 - Oscilação de Madden-Julian, El Niño - BV FAPESP
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Analysis of the combined effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Madden-Julian Oscillation phases on extreme precipitation and temperature events

Grant number: 13/02797-3
Support Opportunities:Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
Start date until: June 01, 2013
End date until: May 31, 2016
Field of knowledge:Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences - Meteorology
Principal Investigator:Tercio Ambrizzi
Grantee:Marilia Harumi Shimizu
Host Institution: Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas (IAG). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil

Abstract

Researches on extreme precipitation and temperature events have great importance because of the consequences they have for the society and the economy. The scenarios of future projections released by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicate an increase of the frequency of extreme events in the near future, which highlights the importance of studying the phenomena that may influence the occurrence of these events, in order to predict them more precisely. One of the factors that may have influence on extreme events is the combined response of the phases of two distinct phenomena: the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Some studies, focusing on the Northern Hemisphere, indicate that the basic response of an ENSO phase is dependent on the phase of the MJO. Thus, this project aims to determine the influence of the MJO phases on the frequency of occurrence and / or intensity of extreme events over South America in years of El Niño and La Niña. Reanalysis and satellite data will be used for the analysis, as well as simulations with climate models of the next IPCC report, which will be released in the second half of 2013. The ability of the models to simulate ENSO and MJO and the combined response of these will be evaluated for present and future climates. Finally, it is expected to understand the implications when MJO phases are considered in the predictions of ENSO effects on temperature and precipitation extremes, particularly over South America and specifically over Brazil.

News published in Agência FAPESP Newsletter about the scholarship:
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Scientific publications
(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)
SHIMIZU, MARILIA HARUMI; AMBRIZZI, TERCIO; LIEBMANN, BRANT. Extreme precipitation events and their relationship with ENSO and MJO phases over northern South America. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, v. 37, n. 6, p. 2977-2989, . (13/50521-7, 13/02797-3, 08/58101-9)

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