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Forecast model of total electron content over South America

Grant number: 13/01924-1
Support type:Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctorate
Effective date (Start): July 01, 2013
Effective date (End): July 14, 2015
Field of knowledge:Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences
Principal Investigator:Jonas Rodrigues de Souza
Grantee:Paulo Alexandre Bronzato Nogueira
Home Institution: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE). Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia, Inovações e Comunicações (Brasil). São José dos Campos , SP, Brazil

Abstract

The Space Weather program aims to forecast the response of the space environment to the continuous changes of the sun-earth system. These effects are important in the ionosphere, which responds differently to these controlling agents, especially in the equatorial region of Brazil. In addition to solar disturbances, the ionosphere is very sensitive to planetary wave activity, as well as the effects of the tides. Thus the ionosphere becomes a highly complex system to make predictions, and to study the day-to-day variability. It is proposed in this postdoctoral project to improve the forecasting technique of Total Electron Content (TEC) in the equatorial and low latitudes regions over South America The theoretical model Sheffield University Plasmasphere-Ionosphere Model (SUPIM) has been used to model the low-latitude ionosphere. However, this model has been proven to be ineffective in predicting the TEC with high confidence over the Brazilian region. To improve this model realistic values for the vertical drift and thermospheric neutral wind are required. We aim to develop an empirical model of the vertical drift over Brazil. The model results will be compared and validated by observational TEC maps. The applications of these TEC predictions are: Space Weather Program, underway at the Institute, improvements in conducting research studies for use in navigation and positioning system guided by satellites using GNSS and for several applications in geodesy.

Scientific publications (4)
(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)
NOGUEIRA, P. A. B.; SOUZA, J. R.; ABDU, M. A.; PAES, R. R.; SOUSASANTOS, J.; MARQUES, M. S.; BAILEY, G. J.; DENARDINI, C. M.; BATISTA, I. S.; TAKAHASHI, H.; CUEVA, R. Y. C.; CHEN, S. S. Modeling the equatorial and low-latitude ionospheric response to an intense X-class solar flare. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SPACE PHYSICS, v. 120, n. 4, p. 3021-3032, APR 2015. Web of Science Citations: 13.
TAKAHASHI, H.; COSTA, S.; OTSUKA, Y.; SHIOKAWA, K.; MONICO, J. F. G.; PAULA, E.; NOGUEIRA, P.; DENARDINI, C. M.; BECKER-GUEDES, F.; WRASSE, C. M.; IVO, A. S.; GOMES, V. C. F.; GARGARELA, JR., W.; SANT'ANNA, N.; GATTO, R. Diagnostics of equatorial and low latitude ionosphere by TEC mapping over Brazil. Advances in Space Research, v. 54, n. 3, p. 385-394, AUG 1 2014. Web of Science Citations: 14.
NOGUEIRA, P. A. B.; ABDU, M. A.; SOUZA, J. R.; BAILEY, G. J.; BATISTA, I. S.; SHUME, E. B.; DENARDINI, C. M. Longitudinal variation in Global Navigation Satellite Systems TEC and topside ion density over South American sector associated with the four-peaked wave structures. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SPACE PHYSICS, v. 118, n. 12, p. 7940-7953, DEC 2013. Web of Science Citations: 8.
NOGUEIRA, P. A. B.; ABDU, M. A.; SOUZA, J. R.; BATISTA, I. S.; BAILEY, G. J.; SANTOS, A. M.; TAKAHASHI, H. Equatorial ionization anomaly development as studied by GPS TEC and foF2 over Brazil: A comparison of observations with model results from SUPIM and IRI-2012. JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC AND SOLAR-TERRESTRIAL PHYSICS, v. 104, p. 45-54, NOV 2013. Web of Science Citations: 7.

Please report errors in scientific publications list by writing to: cdi@fapesp.br.