Detailing abstention in the State of São Paulo

• Grant number: 16/11404-3
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships abroad - Research Internship - Doctorate (Direct)
• Start date: September 27, 2016
• End date: April 14, 2017
• Field of knowledge: Humanities - Political Science - Political Behavior
• Principal Investigator: George Avelino Filho
• Grantee: Claudia Cerqueira do Nascimento
• Supervisor: Scott Desposato
• Host Institution: Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo (EAESP). Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Institution abroad: University of California, San Diego (UC San Diego), United States
• Associated to the scholarship: 15/19236-0 - Geography and politics: three essays, BP.DD

Abstract

This research aims at understanding how the dynamics of absenteeism works in the São Paulo electoral environment over the last decade, considering the context of compulsory voting as electoral law. Several authors have pointed to the low level of turnout in countries where voting is voluntary. However, in countries where voting is an obligation, there are very few studies concerning the absenteeism. It seems to be implied the idea that every citizen who fits the parameters to be a voter will accomplish her civil duty. This assumption may, however, be fallacious: Brazil has, in its presidential elections, an abstention average rate of 18.6% in the period of 1998-2014, suggesting a constant rate over time. The goal of this research is to contribute to the complex field of electoral behavior by testing whether the probability of a voter who does not attend the poll varies according to her socioeconomic status and geographical location. Also, it will be tested the effects of these variables over time (election data from 2004 to 2014) and space (geocoded polling places and creation of areas of influence), through the state of São Paulo. (AU)