Economic and financial evaluation of mining projects under risk conditions

• Grant number: 16/19325-5
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
• Effective date (Start): November 01, 2016
• Effective date (End): October 31, 2017
• Field of knowledge: Engineering - Production Engineering - Economic Engineering
• Principal Investigator: Danilo Simões
• Grantee: Mariana Alves da Silva
• Host Institution: Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP). Campus Experimental de Itapeva. Itapeva , SP, Brazil

Abstract

The activities of the mining industries are characterized by uncertainty environments to a greater or lesser extent, causing for example, financial risk situations, which can be measured from the application of statistical techniques. The need to evaluate these risks in motivates and justifies the development of this research project, which will be guided by stochastic models which allow the generation of pseudorandom numbers to assess the degree of risk of a financial investment. As a premise, stochastic models will be built from the predictability of the capital budget with real data of mining industries, in order to incorporate statistical practices to measure the economic and financial risks and improve decision making. Employees investment analysis methods will be the net present value, the modified internal rate of return and the profitability index, commonly used in financial investment analysis. The financial risk of the mergers investment projects will weigh up 100,000 simulations of pseudorandom numbers obtained by the sampling technique of Latin Hypercube, with distribution parameterized probability. After obtaining the distribution of the response variables of interest will be observed asymmetry, kurtosis, percentiles, and the modal value of possible outcomes and financial risk associated with each analyzed scenario, in order to describe how the odds are associated with these results also will be constructed to ensure the distribution histograms used. (AU)