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Network model for crime forecasting

Grant number: 17/02073-6
Support Opportunities:Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate
Effective date (Start): June 01, 2017
Effective date (End): February 28, 2021
Field of knowledge:Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Computer Science - Computational Mathematics
Acordo de Cooperação: Coordination of Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES)
Principal Investigator:Hélio Pedrini
Grantee:Dalton Ieda Fazanaro
Host Institution: Instituto de Computação (IC). Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP). Campinas , SP, Brazil
Associated research grant:14/12236-1 - AnImaLS: Annotation of Images in Large Scale: what can machines and specialists learn from interaction?, AP.TEM
Associated scholarship(s):19/11266-8 - Network Model for Crime Forecasting, BE.EP.DR


The earliest studies in the Science of Criminology are attributed to the late nineteenth century. Over the decades, Criminology has witnessed its sociological essence encompassing practices from other areas of knowledge, characterizing itself as an inherently interdisciplinary science from the beginning. The adoption of concepts of the Exact Sciences in investigations in Criminology presents as a recent and ascending movement, originating a new field of research known as Computational Criminology, which uses theories of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science to offer solutions to problems and questions in Criminology through mathematical models and computational methods. Two of the most outstanding tasks in this area are mapping and predicting crimes. While the former intends to identify criminal patterns in time and space, the second attempts to infer the likelihood that a particular type of crime will occur in a particular location. The present proposal for a PhD project focuses essentially on predicting crimes, since this is still an incipient task and subject to relevant and innovative scientific contributions, made possible by the improvement of computational power and the technological advances experienced in the last decades. In order to do so, the use of complex networks and Petri nets is suggested. These choices are due to their dynamic and robust graphic nature, supposedly adequate to deal with the scalability and complexity of the criminal data obtained today. Finally, in addition to the construction of a new mathematical and computational model of prediction and inference, the project will also offer a social contribution, by using criminal statistics from Sao Paulo state and Federal government for its validation. (AU)

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Scientific publications
(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)
FAZANARO, DALTON IEDA; PEDRINI, HELIO. A comparative analysis of Bayesian network structure learning algorithms applied to crime data. Intelligent Data Analysis, v. 24, n. 4, p. 887-907, . (17/02073-6)
Academic Publications
(References retrieved automatically from State of São Paulo Research Institutions)
FAZANARO, Dalton Ieda. Um método de engenharia de conhecimento em redes bayesianas para redução de espaços amostrais. 2021. Doctoral Thesis - Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP). Instituto de Computação Campinas, SP.

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