Intercomparison of simulation models of eucalyptus forests and their use to define strategies to increase resilience and productivity in the face of climate change

• Grant number: 16/26014-6
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate
• Start date: July 01, 2017
• End date: May 31, 2020
• Field of knowledge: Agronomical Sciences - Agronomy - Agricultural Meteorology
• Agreement: Coordination of Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES)
• Principal Investigator: Paulo Cesar Sentelhas
• Grantee: Elvis Felipe Elli
• Host Institution: Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz (ESALQ). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Piracicaba , SP, Brazil
• Associated scholarship(s): 18/00642-6 - Improvement of eucalyptus process-based simulations with APSIM model and its use for forest evaluations under present and future climate scenarios, BE.EP.DR

Abstract

Eucalyptus is the most cultivated species in reforestation in Brazil and has been pointed out one of the best options for the production of charcoal, pulp and paper, biomass and energy. This species is highly influenced by the climatic conditions of the growing site. In this context, it is necessary to carry out studies that seek to evaluate climatic risks and potential production in the different regions of Brazil, under current and future conditions. Thus, the objectives of this project are: a) to adapt, calibrate and evaluate different simulation models of eucalyptus growth; B) to simulate eucalyptus growth in different producing regions in Brazil; and c) to evaluate the impact of variability and climate change on eucalyptus productivity. For this, we will use observed data of eucalyptus productivity from different locations and years, in order to calibrate and evaluate the performance of the MZA-FAO, APSIM, 3PG, CenW and FOREST - DNDC models. With the calibrated models, a sensitivity analysis will be done with respect to the variables air temperature, rainfall, solar radiation and CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Subsequently, historical series of meteorological data (current scenario) from different producing regions of Brazil will be used to evaluate the impact of variability and climate changes on the productivity of this species. In order to evaluate the future scenarios, five General Circulation Climatic Models (HadGEM2-ES, CSIRO-MK3-6-0, GISS-E2-R, MIROC-ESM and CNRM-CM5) and two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) will be considered. Based on the results of this study, we intend to propose adaptation actions for eucalyptus cultivation, in order to mitigate possible negative impacts on forest production. (AU)

Scientific publications

(6)

(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)

ELLI, ELVIS FELIPE; SENTELHAS, PAULO CESAR; BENDER, FABIANI DENISE. Impacts and uncertainties of climate change projections on Eucalyptus plantations productivity across Brazil. FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT, v. 474, OCT 15 2020. (16/26014-6)

ELLI, ELVIS FELIPE; HUTH, NEIL; SENTELHAS, PAULO CESAR; CARNEIRO, RAFAELA LORENZATO; ALVARES, CLAYTON ALCARDE. Global sensitivity-based modelling approach to identify suitable Eucalyptus traits for adaptation to climate variability and change. IN SILICO PLANTS, v. 2, n. 1, 2020. (18/00642-6, 16/26014-6)

ELLI, ELVIS FELIPE; SENTELHAS, PAULO CESAR; HUTH, NEIL; CARNEIRO, RAFAELA LORENZATO; ALVARES, CLAYTON ALCARDE. Gauging the effects of climate variability on Eucalyptus plantations productivity across Brazil: A process-based modelling approach. ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS, v. 114, JUL 2020. (16/26014-6, 18/00642-6)

ELLI, ELVIS FELIPE; SENTELHAS, PAULO CESAR; DE FREITAS, CLEVERSON HENRIQUE; CARNEIRO, RAFAELA LORENZATO; ALVARES, CLAYTON ALCARDE. Intercomparison of structural features and performance of Eucalyptus simulation models and their ensemble for yield estimations. FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT, v. 450, OCT 15 2019. (16/26014-6)

ELLI, ELVIS FELIPE; HUTH, NEIL; SENTELHAS, PAULO CESAR; CARNEIRO, RAFAELA LORENZATO; ALVARES, CLAYTON ALCARDE. Ability of the APSIM Next Generation Eucalyptus model to simulate complex traits across contrasting environments. ECOLOGICAL MODELLING, v. 419, MAR 1 2020. (16/26014-6, 18/00642-6)

ELLI, ELVIS FELIPE; SENTELHAS, PAULO CESAR; DE FREITAS, CLEVERSON HENRIQUE; CARNEIRO, RAFAELA LORENZATO; ALVARES, CLAYTON ALCARDE. Assessing the growth gaps of Eucalyptus plantations in Brazil - Magnitudes causes and possible mitigation strategies. FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT, v. 451, NOV 1 2019. (16/26014-6)

Academic Publications

(References retrieved automatically from State of São Paulo Research Institutions)

ELLI, Elvis Felipe. Eucalyptus simulation models: understanding and mitigating the impacts of climate variability and change on forest productivity across Brazil. 2020. Doctoral Thesis - Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz (ESALA/BC) Piracicaba.