Physiological data inclusion in models describing climate change impact in animals distribution

• Grant number: 17/20474-8
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctorate
• Effective date (Start): December 01, 2017
• Effective date (End): January 31, 2021
• Field of knowledge: Biological Sciences - Ecology
• Principal Investigator: Carlos Arturo Navas Iannini
• Grantee: Carlos Ernesto Candia Gallardo
• Host Institution: Instituto de Biociências (IB). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 14/16320-7 - Impacts of climate/environmental change on the fauna: an integrative approach, AP.PFPMCG.TEM

Abstract

That climate changes threaten faunal biodiversity is nowadays considered undisputable. One of the main effects of such changes is the shift in distributional patterns, a worldwide trend that has been observed for numerous taxa in different biomes. One approach frequently used by global change biologists to understand and predict such impacts is through the use of the so-called climate envelope models (niche modeling). These models mix data on species distribution with environmental data, and attempt to predict or reconstruct the distribution patterns of species under different scenarios of climate change. Even though such models are useful to predict actual and past scenarios of the association between climate and distribution, their capacity to forecast future shifts in distribution associated with climate changes are limited because they implicit assume that all species have comparable abilities to deal with climate change, and that the climate characterizing current distribution corresponds to ideal conditions. One way to overcome this caveat is to parameterize and incorporate the intrinsic physiological properties of species (tolerance, capacity and plasticity) to predict their responses to climatic variables and how these properties may affect the geographic ranges of assemblages, species, and populations. The main goal of this research is to understand the regulation of phenological strategies and their plasticity in the face of climatic changes and extreme events. The phenological strategies of different sympatric species of the Ithomiini butterflies will be compared, including geographic populations of the same species that present distinct phenological strategies, besides measuring the individual variation within populations.