Impacts of exports on productivity: an empirical analysis for Brazil

• Grant number: 18/21896-6
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
• Start date: February 01, 2019
• End date: March 31, 2021
• Field of knowledge: Applied Social Sciences - Economics - Quantitative Methods Applied to Economics
• Principal Investigator: Leandro dos Santos Maciel
• Grantee: Pedro Henrique Alves de Oliveira
• Host Institution: Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP). Campus Osasco. Osasco , SP, Brazil

Abstract

The productivity of the factors of production is one of the determinants on the development levels of an economy. According to the export-led growth theory, it is established that international trade positively affects the level of productivity and its rate of growth. In this sense, this research project aims to empirically examine the relationship between the volume of exports and labor productivity in the manufacturing industry in Brazil during the period of 1992, when the country began to adopt trade liberalization policies, until 2015. To achieve such objective it will be considered the vector autoregressive (VAR) time series models, since they allow to analyze the relationship between two variables over time. In the VAR model will be included exogenous variables that influence the level of exports, such as interest rates, real exchange rate and inflation. In addition, the cointegration hypothesis of the variables will be tested to evaluate the need to fit a vector model with error correction. The verification of export-led growth theory in Brazil will take place through the model parameters estimates, as well as according to the results of the impulse response functions and the analysis of variance decomposition. Finally, the analyzes also include the discussion regarding the results in accordance to the foreign trade policies adopted by Brazil during the period of study.