Extreme events in a climate change context: characterization based on climate model and nonstationarity

• Grant number: 20/08140-0
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate
• Start date: April 01, 2021
• End date: April 19, 2023
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences
• Principal Investigator: Edson Cezar Wendland
• Grantee: André Simões Ballarin
• Host Institution: Escola de Engenharia de São Carlos (EESC). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Carlos , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 15/03806-1 - Water availability and quality threats in a Guarani Aquifer System outcrop zone, AP.BIOEN.TEM
• Associated scholarship(s): 22/06017-1 - Extreme events of rainfall and temperature in Brazil under a climate change context: statistical properties and future changes, BE.EP.DR

Abstract

Extreme climate events are of great importance in hydrological studies, such as in the design of hydraulic structures and the management of water resources. An accurate characterization of these events is essential for society, seeking to avoid the impact of it on several natural and socioeconomic systems. In the current context of climate change, with frequent changes in climatic dynamics, this characterization process becomes more complex. Although several methodologies have been developed to consider the impact of climate changes in the variables of interest, there is still no consensus on which one is the most suitable. Also, in Brazil, these methodologies are still not widespread for its uses on the characterization of extreme events. Therefore, the present study focuses on the characterization of extreme climate events in a global warming context. Initially, a database of temperature and rainfall will be built, for the entire country, considering different future scenarios generated by climate models. Those data will be used to understand the Spatio-temporal dynamics, looking for causal relationships between extreme events across the national territory. Finally, in a case study considering the state of São Paulo, two methodologies will be proposed to characterize events of heavy rainfall and meteorological droughts in the context of climate change. The study is expected to contribute to a better understanding of the climatic dynamics in the country, assisting decision markers on the procedure to characterize extreme events with the proposed methodologies. (AU)

Scientific publications

(5)

(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)

BALLARIN, ANDRE SIMOES; SONE, JULLIAN SOUZA; GESUALDO, GABRIELA CHIQUITO; SCHWAMBACK, DIMAGHI; REIS, ALAN; ALMAGRO, ANDRE; WENDLAND, EDSON CEZAR. CLIMBra - Climate Change Dataset for Brazil. SCIENTIFIC DATA, v. 10, n. 1, p. 16-pg., 2023-01-20. (19/24292-7, 21/14016-2, 22/06017-1, 15/03806-1, 20/08140-0)

BALLARIN, ANDRE S.; CALIXTO, KALYL G.; ANACHE, JAMIL A. A.; WENDLAND, EDSON. Combined predictive and descriptive tests for extreme rainfall probability distribution selection. HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES, v. 67, n. 7, p. 11-pg., 2022-05-07. (15/03806-1, 20/08140-0)

BALLARIN, ANDRE S.; ANACHE, JAMIL A. A.; WENDLAND, EDSON. Trends and abrupt changes in extreme rainfall events and their influence on design quantiles: a case study in Sao Paulo, Brazil. THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY, v. 149, n. 3-4, p. 15-pg., 2022-07-13. (15/03806-1, 20/08140-0)

BALLARIN, ANDRE S.; OLIVEIRA, PAULO TARSO S.; MARCHEZEPE, BRUNO K.; GODOI, RAQUEL F.; CAMPOS, ALINE M.; CAMPOS, FABRIZIO S.; ALMAGRO, ANDRE; MEIRA NETO, ANTONIO A.. The Impact of an Open Water Balance Assumption on Understanding the Factors Controlling the Long-Term Streamflow Components. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, v. 58, n. 10, p. 18-pg., 2022-10-01. (19/24292-7, 22/06017-1, 15/03806-1, 20/08140-0)

BALLARIN, ANDRE S.; SOUSA MOTA UCHOA, JOSE GESCILAM; DOS SANTOS, MATHEUS S. S.; ALMAGRO, ANDRE; MIRANDA, IANCA P. P.; DA SILVA, PEDRO GUSTAVO C.; DA SILVA, GREICELENE J. J.; GOMES, MARCUS N. N.; WENDLAND, EDSON; OLIVEIRA, PAULO TARSO S.. Brazilian Water Security Threatened by Climate Change and Human Behavior. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, v. 59, n. 7, p. 16-pg., 2023-07-01. (15/03806-1, 20/08140-0, 22/06017-1)

Academic Publications

(References retrieved automatically from State of São Paulo Research Institutions)

BALLARIN, André Simões. Future perspectives of extreme events and water availability in Brazilian catchments. 2024. Doctoral Thesis - Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Escola de Engenharia de São Carlos (EESC/SBD) São Carlos.