Nature-based solutions for adapting to extreme hydrological events

• Grant number: 24/12925-3
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Support Program for Fixating Young Doctors
• Effective date (Start): August 01, 2024
• Effective date (End): July 31, 2025
• Field of knowledge: Biological Sciences - Ecology - Applied Ecology
• Principal Investigator: Jean Paul Walter Metzger
• Grantee: Stéphanie Vaz Nogueira Campos
• Host Institution: Instituto de Estudos Avançados (IEA). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 24/02260-4 - Nature-based solutions for adapting to extreme hydrological events, AP.R

Abstract

Translation:Climate projections indicate that the state of São Paulo will have to deal with the effects of climate change in various ways. On one hand, projections point to atmospheric warming, with all models predicting a reduction in the duration of cold waves, as well as an increase in the duration of heat waves. On the other hand, regarding annual precipitation and related extreme events, there is no trend consensus among the models, although there is a tendency toward drier conditions with annual precipitation reductions. In all scenarios, climate change is expected to continue to exacerbate environmental and urban problems and increase risks, especially for communities already living in vulnerable conditions. Aiming to increase the resilience of the state of São Paulo to climate change, the Climate Action Plan (PAC) was launched. This plan involves investments in significant transformations in the state's production and service infrastructure, seeking to help reduce social and regional inequalities and achieve net-zero carbon emissions. In 2024, the state is preparing to launch its Climate Adaptation and Resilience Plan (PEARC), with the goal of advancing adaptive actions in five strategic thematic sectors: biodiversity, one health, food security, water security, and the coastal zone. It is in this current context that this postdoctoral research, linked to the Biota Synthesis Project (a "Science Center for Development"), has as its main objective to analyze, within the scope of the State of São Paulo, the interactions and influence of nature-based solutions (NbS) in adaptation, with particular attention to the impacts associated with extreme hydrological events (e.g., problems related to water security, such as droughts and floods). With a special focus on the state's urban areas (considering that 96% of São Paulo's population lives in cities), the research will analyze, for different climate change scenarios, the impact of green areas and NbS on the ecosystem services of water regulation, capture, and storage. This analysis will involve: (i) mapping climate vulnerability at different scales (municipalities, metropolitan regions, São Paulo's macrometropolis, the state of São Paulo) and for different social groups; (ii) assessing adaptive capacity at these different scales through indicators and spatial data; (iii) evaluating the feasibility of interventions aligned with NbS at these different scales; and (iv) proposing NbS projects and urban planning to address extreme hydrological events. These analyses will also consider issues related to climate and environmental justice and green gentrification. The results will provide inputs for developing climate adaptation strategies in the state of São Paulo, particularly for three strategic sectors of PEARC: biodiversity, water security, and the coastal zone.