Regional risks and opportunities on land use change and climate change with thermal-water ecosystem services: investigation for basins in Caatinga and Atlantic Forest

• Grant number: 19/23853-5
• Support Opportunities: Regular Research Grants
• Start date: March 01, 2021
• End date: August 31, 2023
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences - Meteorology
• Agreement: CONFAP - National Council of State Research Support Foundations
• Principal Investigator: Humberto Ribeiro da Rocha
• Grantee: Humberto Ribeiro da Rocha
• Host Institution: Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas (IAG). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated researchers: Carla Ferreira Josef ; Carlos Alberto Mendonça ; Leonardo Moreno Domingues
• Associated scholarship(s): 21/02769-6 - Implementation of artificial intelligence algorithms with data base applied in hydroclimatology, BP.TT

Abstract

To understand how the Biosphere contributes to the hydrological and climate system and its social impact is a global priority of WMO/Urban Integrated Weather, Environment and Climate Services, that enphasizes the high potential of ecosystem services for the improvement on water, food and energy securities, on functions and conservation of biodiversity, and on human well being in dense urban environments. Climate projections for 21st century show significant impacts of warming over South America that should progress to 2º to 4ºC, and with high vulnerable regions to rainfall change especially in brazillian Northeast. This project aims do investigate the effects of global climate and land use changes on local and regional hydrological regime, for strategic basins within the Caatinga and southeast Atlantic Forest biomes, with the purpose to assess risks and opportunities of thermal-water ecosystem services to contribute to water security. We specify the following main tasks: enlarge the understanding of hydrometeorological process at local and basin scales within areas of forest restoration (Projeto Conservador de Águas), in order to keep monitoring and analysis of field data, calibration of discharge gauges and soil moisture sensors, and spectral analysis to refine calculations of atmospheric fluxes, that will all be used to force and calibrate atmospheric and hydrological models; refine results of climate change outputs under diferente land cover, at the basin scale over Southeast and Northeast brazillian regions, by making critical analysis of regionalized climate projections and characterization of climate extremes; assess impacts of land use change with hydrological simulations using land cover scenarios under hypotheses of vegetation supression or forest restoration at key functional areas (riparian, slopes, springs); assess with coupled atmosphere-surface models and connected hydrological modelling the common impact of land use and climate change, in special cases for desertification over Northeast Brazil. (AU)

Scientific publications

(8)

(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)

KOWALSKI, ANDRE C. G.; MENDONCA, CARLOS A.; OFTERDINGER, ULRICH S.; ROCHA, HUMBERTO R.. racture Critical Length Estimative Using Percolation Theory and Well Logging Dat. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND ENGINEERING GEOPHYSICS, v. 26, n. 4, p. 279-286, DEC 2021. (18/22533-4, 17/50241-5, 19/23853-5)

DOMINGUES, LEONARDO MORENO; DE ABREU, RAFAEL CESARIO; DA ROCHA, HUMBERTO RIBEIRO. Hydrologic Impact of Climate Change in the Jaguari River in the Cantareira Reservoir System. WATER, v. 14, n. 8, p. 20-pg., 2022-04-01. (15/50682-6, 19/23853-5)

LUCAS MACHADO PONTES; PEDRO VELLOSO GOMES BATISTA; BÁRBARA PEREIRA CHRISTOFARO SILVA; MARCELO RIBEIRO VIOLA; HUMBERTO RIBEIRO DA ROCHA; MARX LEANDRO NAVES SILVA. Assessing sediment yield and streamflow with SWAT model in a small sub-basin of the Cantareira System. Revista Brasileira de Ciência do Solo, v. 45, 2021-10-22. (19/23853-5, 17/50241-5)

DE ABREU, RAFAEL CESARIO; HALLAK, RICARDO; DA ROCHA, HUMBERTO RIBEIRO. Effects of Local Vegetation and Regional Controls in Near-Surface Air Temperature for Southeastern Brazil. ATMOSPHERE, v. 13, n. 11, p. 16-pg., 2022-11-01. (15/50682-6, 19/23853-5)

DOMINGUES, LEONARDO MORENO; ROCHA, HUMBERTO RIBEIRO DA. Serial droughts and loss of hydrologic resilience in a subtropical basin: The case of water inflow into the Cantareira reservoir system in Brazil during 2013-2021. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES, v. 44, p. 18-pg., 2022-10-21. (15/50682-6, 19/23853-5, 21/11762-5)

ALBERTON, BRUNA; MARTIN, THOMAS C. M.; DA ROCHA, HUMBERTO R.; RICHARDSON, ANDREW D.; MOURA, MAGNA S. B.; TORRES, RICARDO S.; MORELLATO, LEONOR PATRICIA CERDEIRA. Relationship between tropical leaf phenology and ecosystem productivity using phenocameras. FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE, v. 11, p. 14-pg., 2023-09-14. (14/00215-0, 13/50155-0, 10/52113-5, 09/54208-6, 19/23853-5, 21/11762-5, 15/50488-5, 16/01413-5, 19/11835-2)

CHITTOLINA, MARIANE; DA ROCHA, HUMBERTO RIBEIRO; DOMINGUES, LEONARDO MORENO; LOBO, GRE DE ARAUJO. Hydrological response of a headwater catchment in Southeast Brazil-Threshold patterns of stormflow response. Hydrological Processes, v. 37, n. 5, p. 15-pg., 2023-05-01. (16/16358-0, 19/17179-0, 20/04060-1, 15/50682-6, 19/23853-5, 21/11762-5)

CHRISTOFARO SILVA, BARBARA PEREIRA; TASSINARI, DIEGO; NAVES SILVA, MARX LEANDRO; SILVA, BRUNO MONTOANI; CURI, NILTON; DA ROCHA, HUMBERTO RIBEIRO. Nonlinear models for soil moisture sensor calibration in tropical mountainous soils. Scientia Agricola, v. 79, n. 4, 2022. (17/50241-5, 19/23853-5)