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Trends and occurrences of extreme weather events and episodes in Presidente Prudente (SP)

Grant number: 20/14778-7
Support type:Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate
Effective date (Start): May 01, 2021
Effective date (End): March 31, 2024
Field of knowledge:Humanities - Geography
Principal researcher:Margarete Cristiane de Costa Trindade Amorim
Grantee:Gustavo Henrique Pereira da Silva
Home Institution: Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia (FCT). Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP). Campus de Presidente Prudente. Presidente Prudente , SP, Brazil

Abstract

Temperature and precipitation extremes have been the subject of study by numerous researchers around the world. Many analyses make use of statistical techniques, as well as integrate socio-environmental aspects to offer projections, evaluations and relationships with the impacts that can be caused to society, in its different sectors. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts in its 5th report the occurrence of temperature extremes and the increased risk of heavy rainfall and drought, and reports on the unequivocal anthropogenic influence on global warming, from the emission of greenhouse gases, which imposes for science the need for reflection on adaptation strategies. In this sense, the present thesis project focuses on the hypothesis of increasing trends in the occurrence of extreme climatic events, regarding air temperature and rainfall in the municipality of Presidente Prudente (SP), with possible negative repercussions for human lives in the city, as in triggering extreme episodes. The project is based on the theoretical methodological proposal of the urban climate system, with emphasis on the hidrometeórico subsystem, and aims to evaluate the occurrence of extreme climatic episodes in Presidente Prudente (SP). For this purpose, the temperature and precipitation climatic data of the INMET meteorological station, which has a consolidated database, will be collected, making it possible to determine a historical series of at least 30 consecutive years, as guided by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for the normal climatological. Climatological analyses shall be carried out using statistical and mapping techniques in the data processing in order to assess the time variations of the climatic elements, breaks or points of changes in the historical data series, as well as characterize the extreme episodes studied and the atmospheric systems acting. Through a qualitative analysis, it is expected to characterize the episodes studied and evaluate the forms of communication employed by media and public authorities. It is expected that through the results obtained this project will contribute theoretically and methodologically to the climate studies that are carried out in medium-sized cities in the tropical and continental environment, given the importance of increasing this debate, which is increasingly present in practically all spheres of human life. (AU)

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