Trend analysis in the historical series of climate and sugarcane productivity variables in Piracicaba-SP

• Grant number: 21/14257-0
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
• Start date: March 01, 2022
• End date: June 30, 2023
• Field of knowledge: Agronomical Sciences - Agronomy - Agricultural Meteorology
• Principal Investigator: Fabio Ricardo Marin
• Grantee: Octavia Manoela Matos Tavares
• Host Institution: Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz (ESALQ). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Piracicaba , SP, Brazil
• Associated scholarship(s): 22/05705-1 - Climate change impact on wheat yield and climate long-term trends in Kansas-USA, BE.EP.IC

Abstract

As it is a very important product economically, with applications in the food and energy industry as a renewable source, it is extremely important to study sugarcane, given that its demand has increased over the years due to the increase in the world population. Thus, aiming to understand the impacts that the various climate changes on planet Earth have been affecting on the productivity of plantations, looking to developing alternatives that mitigate such impacts and provide for the permanence of crops, it is important to analyze climate adversities over the years. The objective of this work is the analysis of the climatological series of the agrometeorological stations present at the Agricultural University College "Luiz de Queiroz" (Esalq-USP). In the first part of this study, the organization of the database will be carried out to perform the statistical analysis of these, using the non-parametric method of Mann-Kendall, to identify trends and climate change, and then apply them to the same series of the equation of Pettitt, in order to discover possible breaking points in the data series. Secondly, the productivity of sugarcane will be simulated with the DSSAT/Samuca over 100 years and the same tests will be applied, in order to assess whether the trends observed in climate data also have an impact on the simulated productivity series.(AU)