Identification of indicators and typologies of adaptation and social environmental resilience for the construction of visions of the future

• Grant number: 22/00917-0
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• Start date: March 01, 2022
• End date: February 29, 2024
• Field of knowledge: Interdisciplinary Subjects
• Principal Investigator: Celso von Randow
• Grantee: Minella Alves Martins
• Host Institution: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE). São José dos Campos , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 17/22269-2 - Transition to sustainability and agriculture-energy-water nexus: exploring an integrated approach with case studies in the Cerrado and Caatinga, AP.PFPMCG.TEM

Abstract

In Brazil, Cerrado and Caatinga biomes are identified as the main providers of land available for converting natural vegetation into areas for agriculture. However, the transition from natural areas to anthropogenic systems can bring greater implications in relation to loss of biodiversity, regulation of the hydrological and climate regimes, in addition to affecting local socioeconomic relations, affecting sustainability in general. The use of participatory approaches to building scenarios and indicators, which integrate qualitative and quantitative methods from the natural and social sciences, can support the understanding of the possible paths that enable the transition to sustainable futures in the two biomes, through the definition of scenarios and indicators in multiple scales, from regional to local. However, methodological development is needed so that products from these approaches, such as narratives derived from participatory scenarios at multiple scales, are translated into different types of computational models, such as system dynamics models and spatially explicit dynamic models of change of land use, among others. The main objective of this project is to identify quali-quantitative assumptions for quantifying scenarios, analyzing sustainability variables and indicators, and developing the framework for modeling the dynamics of socio-environmental systems and spatially explicit land use change models at different scales in the Brazilian Cerrado and Caatinga biomes, in the context of the water-energy-food nexus

Scientific publications

(The scientific publications listed on this page originate from the Web of Science or SciELO databases. Their authors have cited FAPESP grant or fellowship project numbers awarded to Principal Investigators or Fellowship Recipients, whether or not they are among the authors. This information is collected automatically and retrieved directly from those bibliometric databases.)

MARTINS, MINELLA ALVES; COLLSTE, DAVID; BEZERRA, FRANCISCO GILNEY SILVA; MIRANDA, MARCELA APARECIDA CAMPOS NEVES; GONCALVES, ANDRE RODRIGUES; BARROS, JOCILENE DANTAS; CARDOSO, MANOEL FERREIRA; SILVINO, AMANDA SOUSA; SONETTI-GONZALEZ, TAIS; OMETTO, JEAN PIERRE HENRY BALBAUD; et al. Long-term sustainability of the water-agriculture-energy nexus in Brazil's MATOPIBA region: A case study using system dynamics. AMBIO, v. 53, n. 12, p. 15-pg., 2024-08-08. (22/00917-0, 17/22269-2)

MARTINS, MINELLA A.; TOMASELLA, JAVIER; BASSANELLI, HELIO R.; PAIVA, ANA CAROLINA E.; VIEIRA, RITA MARCIA S. P.; CANAMARY, ERICA A.; ALVARENGA, LIVIA A.. On the sustainability of paddy rice cultivation in the Paraiba do Sul river basin (Brazil) under a changing climate. JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION, v. 386, p. 12-pg., 2023-01-04. (22/00917-0)

TOMASELLA, JAVIER; MARTINS, MINELLA A.; SHRESTHA, NIRMAN. An open-source tool for improving on-farm yield forecasting systems. FRONTIERS IN SUSTAINABLE FOOD SYSTEMS, v. 7, p. 11-pg., 2023-07-11. (17/22269-2, 22/00917-0)