Extreme events impact assessment: an integrated approach with computable general equilibrium and risk analysis

• Grant number: 21/12397-9
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• Start date: April 01, 2022
• End date: March 31, 2025
• Field of knowledge: Applied Social Sciences - Economics - Regional and Urban Economics
• Principal Investigator: Eduardo Amaral Haddad
• Grantee: Inácio Fernandes de Araújo Junior
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Economia, Administração, Contabilidade e Atuária (FEA). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated scholarship(s): 23/06525-0 - The impact assessment of extreme events: an integrated approach with computable general equilibrium and risk analysis, BE.EP.PD

Abstract

The project aims to develop integrated modeling to measure the economic impacts of extreme events. The fundamental issue to be addressed is the influence of extreme events on the socioeconomic development agenda, particularly regarding regional growth and inequality. The effects of these events will be evaluated through an integrated approach using knowledge from different research fields, specifically Economics, through a computable general equilibrium model, and Engineering, through a probabilistic model. The computable general equilibrium model assesses the interregional and intersectoral linkages in supply chains. Meanwhile, the probabilistic models measure the direct impacts on the productive structure caused by extreme events. The main contribution of the research will be the development of an integrated approach that incorporates elements of uncertainty into modeling to evaluate unexpected events' direct and indirect economic impacts. (AU)

Scientific publications

(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)

HADDAD, EDUARDO A.; ARAUJO, INACIO F.; CHAWKI, CHAIMAA; EL-MANSOUM, RACHIDA; MASNAOUI, MAROUANE. Analysis of economic and environmental impacts of shutting down the Moroccan Refinery Samir: An interregional input-output approach. SCIENTIFIC AFRICAN, v. 20, p. 16-pg., 2023-05-09. (21/12397-9, 14/50848-9)