Climate change effects on the distribution of the macroalgae Gelidiella acerosa

• Grant number: 22/01603-0
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
• Start date: June 01, 2022
• End date: April 03, 2023
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Oceanography - Biological Oceanography
• Principal Investigator: Tito Monteiro da Cruz Lotufo
• Grantee: Thabata Grecco Oliveira Fonseca
• Host Institution: Instituto Oceanográfico (IO). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 15/17177-6 - Integrative approach on the sustainable prospection of marine natural products: from diversity to anticancer compounds, AP.BTA.TEM

Abstract

As a result of climate change, rising temperatures and ocean acidification have a direct impact on biodiversity. Once the physical and biological dynamics of the oceans are altered, ecosystems may have their functionality reduced, with negative effects on associated communities. The present work aims to generate maps of the geographic distribution of the species Gelidiella acerosa for the current and future period, detecting possible areas of expansion or retraction in the distribution of the species. For this, we will use species distribution models (SDMs), which use species occurrence data and environmental variables to obtain the necessary conditions for the species' survival. The models will be generated through the biomod2 package using different algorithms, in an ensemble strategy (in which different algorithms are aggregated to generate a single result). For future projections, three climate change scenarios for the year 2100 will be considered, according to IPCC projections for different SSPs (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways). In this way, it will be possible to assess the area of occurrence of the species and understand what would be the possible changes in its distribution pattern, generating subsidies for conservation actions and management of the species. (AU)